Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Nifty daliy chart update for 29/04/2009

Nifty has formed double top and RSI also confirms negative divergence.If braks the level of 3297 levels will lead to the target of 3097 in coming days(expect within 2 or 3 days)

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

world commodity update for 28/04/2009

Gold has respected our yesterday's negative prediction influenced by the bearish butterfly harmonic pattern -Check it here- which forced it to enter the previous discussed consolidation area placing a temporary low at 887.00. Now additional downside move is expected on the intraday basis as a normal technical result of the negative daily close –small image- while the hourly (Murrey Math) studies shows that the price is moving steadily below (3/8). Hence we will keep our outlook to the downside as far as the pivotal resistance areas at 920.00 remains unbroken.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 855.00 and key resistance now at 940.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 892.00, 881.00, 874.00, 866.00, 855.00
Resistance: 907.00, 912.00, 916.00, 925.00, 935.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell gold at 900.00 with targets at 880.00 and stop loss at 917.00.

Rupee: Sustaining below the falling trendline at 50.50 we continue to maintain a bullish view on rupee aiming 48.80 levels. The Rupee came under pressure yesterday due to cancellation of old exporter contracts. The movement in Rupee is looking range-bound until there is clarity on the New Government. (USD/INR 50.30) Neutral.

Nifty update for 28/04/2009

Nifty face resistant at the previous high of 3510-3513 levels.And now the support is placed at 3372-3375.Failure to hold the level of 3385-3389 will lead to 3295-3298 levels in panic selling

Monday, April 27, 2009

World commodity chart update for 27/04/2009

Oil inclines steadily inside a minor ascending channel as shown on the secondary image attempting to breach 49.35 but after the positive close above this level the short term negative overview is changed gradually to the upside on the intraday and short term basis and we think that 49.75 will be the base whereas the price will incline towards 52.15 followed by 53.50 and a break of which will confirm the direction towards 60.00 $ a barrel as far as 49.35 remains unbroken.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 44.30 and the key resistance at 55.55.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 49.35 remains intact with targets at 60.00$ a barrel.

Support: 49.75, 49.35, 49.00, 48.50, 47.70
Resistance: 51.00, 52.15, 52.95, 53.50, 54.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the contract above 49.75 with targets at 51.00 followed by 52.15 and stop loss with a four-hour close below 49.00.

Gold's ability to hold above the psychological $900.00 level has pushed the price higher breaching the 40 days moving average. The move was largely interpreted as a technical follow-through from Thursday but it also had fundamental influences including China's announcement that the country now holds over 1000 metric tons in gold reserves, up from 600 tons reported since 2003 fuelling speculation that other central banks may follow suit. In addition, until the release of the US government's methodology of stress tests for banks the markets are likely to stay nervous which in turn is good news for gold.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support: $903.75 (Friday's low) Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support: $889.45 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support: $881.40 (low of 22/04/09) Resistance: $913.90 (Friday's high)

9 day moving average - $894.22 14 day moving average - $891.49 40 day moving average - $909.28

Nifty daily chart update for 27/04/2009



Nifty faces resistant at 3489-3491 which is previous high.Now the support is placed at 3465-3469 failure to hold the support at 3465-3469 will lead to 3374-3377 levels very easily.We see a negative divergence in the RSI also which is signal of bearish movement.so no long should be initated in the resistant levels.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Weekly commodity update

With Crude Oil and Gold being in the spotlight this week, especially against purchasing news out of china, we still need to keep our feet firmly planted on the ground as we take a look at the facts.

Looking at the raw data on Crude Oil provided by the EIA, it is very hard to be supportive of a bullish price action for the near term. Crude Oil, Distillate's, Gasoline and Propane stocks all reflect a much higher cyclical average than previously seen for this time of the year. This is underpinned by above average production level and Crude Oil days of supply.

Taking this into consideration, these types of builds would not be a cause for concern, provided of course, that we are in a situation where demand is on the increase. According to the IEA, 'Global demand is now forecast at 83.4 million barrels per day, 2.4 million less than 2008. The pace of contraction is close to early 1980s levels, with a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010'.

And even judging by the short term movements in demand, there is really nothing to suggest an increase in the present environment. After all, China's Crude Oil imports did fall by 5.5% from last year and their Gasoline imports being virtually none.

The recent price action paints a slightly different picture as we approach the top of the range for this year's prices in WTI. Having seen the sharp rejection of the downside this week, good discipline will be needed in approaching any shorts. But it is really hard to see why we should be anything but short, targeting a correction in prices over the next couple of weeks towards $41.00.

The Gold price action is very similar to that of Crude Oil over the past week. However, there too, the upside does seem to be fairly limited. Much of the upside coming on the back of news saying that China had increased their reserves by 76% since 2003. I am slightly skeptical about all this talk, as to some extent it sounds like a bid to talk up the market and I am still of the persuasion that no one country is able to buck the market.

We need to remember that we are trading far from the lows in stocks markets, and even when the carnage on equities was at its bleakest, we failed to break higher ground in Gold. In saying that, it brings to questions whether Gold should carry a high weighting in a general market portfolio. With little upside potential in Gold, I still believe that Gold at 780.00 remains a realistic target in the near term.

In general, I think in our current market environment, keeping it real and sticking to the facts remains the prudent strategy.

Friday, April 24, 2009

World commodity chart update for 24/04/2009

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it advanced for a second day. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.

Silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it climbed after U.S. stocks reversed a rally on concern government stress tests on banks will undermine confidence. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.

U.S. STOCK MARKET INDICES

DJI closed higher on Thursday after recouping yesterday’s drop. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. SPI closed higher on Thursday due to short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. NDI closed higher on Thursday as government efforts to fix the financial system and revive economic growth fuel speculation a global recession is subsiding. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

ENERGY

Crude Oil closed higher on Thursday as it closed higher. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target.

Natural Gas closed lower on Thursday as it fell to the lowest level in more than six years after a government report showed an above-average gain in U.S. inventories amid weakening demand during the recession. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

COFFEE

Coffee closed sharply higher on Thursday on speculation that a strike by truck owners will slow shipments from Colombia. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

Nifty daily chart update for 24/04/2009

Nifty has given small upper breakout from the level of 3397-3400 heading towards the level of 3488-3490 which is previous high.Now the breakout becomes the support levels.Trading below the level of 3397-3400 will take it to 3342-3345 levels

Thursday, April 23, 2009

U.S. STOCK MARKET INDICES FOR 23/04/2009

DJI closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated yesterday's gains in late day trading. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signalling that a bearish outlook is possible near-term. SPI closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated yesterday's gains in late day trading. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signalling that a bearish outlook is possible near-term. NDI closed higher on Wednesday dispite retreating for the second time this week during early trading. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

World commodity chart update for 23/04/2009

Oil continued its tight range trading approaching the new resistance between 49.05 and 49.35 – Previous broken support- we still keep our intraday and the short term outlook to the downside towards 46.65 followed by 44.30. As far as 49.35 and 51.50 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 44.30 and the key resistance at 54.50.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 49.35 remains intact with targets at 44.30 and 41.35.

Support: 47.70, 47.20, 46.65, 46.00, 45.00
Resistance: 49.05, 49.35, 50.10, 50.60, 51.50

Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the contract below 49.05 with targets at 47.70 and 46.65 stop loss with a four hour close above 50.45.

Gold posted a key reversal up and closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it rebounded against yesterday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.


Nifty chart update for 23/04/2009

Nifty holded the support which have given yesterday.Now the nifty faces resistant at the falling trend line at 3365-3368 levels and the support level is placed at 3296-3300 which is long term trend in hourly chart the breach of this level will take to 3252-3254 which is next trendline support level

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

SHORT TERM COUNT

With a 5 wave pattern will we get an immediate sell off or some distribution pattern is hard to say. Till 11367 holds lower tops and bottoms should be expected from here. With the short term channel at 10700 that should be the first support below 10945. If that breaks then 10300 near the 20dma and 50% retracement at 9730 are the 2 subsequent targets. After that we will have to judge whether the correction is a halt to a larger rally or the beginning of a larger fall. If 11367 is crossed then wave extensions could stretch a distribution pattern like a wedge till 11440 where A=C. However with the falling trendline from the top of the bull market and the upper channel line for the short term converging near 11350 it should not be easy to surpass without a correction first.

MEDIUM TERM COUNT

6 weeks complete the max for bear rallies. A close above the Nov high and 40wema at 10960 is a sign of strength. However due to the time cycle and wave count another week of strength should be looked for to confirm if this is a false breakout or not. The 20 week average at 9602 and falling trendline for the Nov-Jan highs at 9780 are going to offer the support zone to any correction and till these hold its possible for more medium term upside if any. My wave count however is that wave C is a 5 wave rally and therefore X wave should be over at the recent highs. So unless C extends into a multi month advance with corrections in between [with 9700 holding]; the top in place here could mark the resumption of the bear phase to new lows. For these views to confirm 9700 will be the key level to watch.

LONG TERM COUNT

On the monthly charts an engulfing bull across indices occurred. This near the 8020 61.8% line for the 30 year bull market that I have been highlighting gives credence to this support. It also supports the bull market theorists as more evidence develops. So if these supports see an accumulation pattern develop over the next year we could take that call. But right now its only credit to the support and nothing else. Above I have shown the bullish scenario is that wave(2) is over. But till further evidence develops the long term 30 year trendline at 6870 can still be tested.

World commodity chart update for 22/04/2009

Oil succeeded to reach our yesterday's target at 46.65 followed by a violent upside action approaching the pivotal resistance at 49.35 but still we believe to witness a new downward wave on the short term trading towards 46.65 and 44.30. A break of 49.35 can make our analysis invalid as any break out above it will lead us directly towards 51.60 as a preparation to reach 54.50 and 60 $ a barrel .

The trading range for today is among the key support at 44.30 and the key resistance at 54.50.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 49.35 remains intact with targets at 44.30 and 41.35.

Support: 48.40, 47.40, 46.65, 46.00, 45.00
Resistance: 49.05, 49.35, 50.10, 50.60, 51.60

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the contract below 49.05 with targets at 47.20 and stop loss with a four-hour close above 50.60.

Gold

As we discussed in our yesterday's mid-day report that the price action was trending downward towards 881.00 to re-test the broken upper line of the minor descending channel and also to re-test 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire rally started at 679.00 and topped out at 1006.00 before resuming the main upside action as the bullish harmonic pattern still has targets to be reached particularly if it succeeds to hit the cloud's spans of Ichimoku indicator-currently located at 889.00- while the stochastic positive overlapping attempt supports our intraday bullish outlook. Only a break of 864.00 can invalidate our expected scenario. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 840.00 and key resistance now at 925.00. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 876.00, 864.00, 855.00, 847.00, 840.00
Resistance: 889.00, 900.00, 912.00, 916.00, 925.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy gold at 883.00 with targets at 905.00 and stop loss at 864.00
Nifty update for 22/04/2009

Nifty stays above the crucial support level as far as it closes above the level of 3365-3367 the downtrend is limited.If it closes below the level of 3365-3367 the panic selling will be seen.On the up move if it stays above 3412-3416 then it will lead to 3510-3513 levels

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

World commodity chart update for 21/04/2009

Crude declined sharply yesterday losing 4.01 dollars or 8% to settle at $48.24. The move was significant enough to see crude breaching below the psychological important $50.00 mark and at the same time crossing and holding below the 40 day moving average. Technically we are now out of the $49.05 - $56.09 sideways range in which crude has been trading since mid March and we're looking for the next downside target at $47.71 last seen on March 18th.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $48.18 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $53.21 (high of 17/04/09)

Support: $47.71 (low of 18/03/09) Resistance: $52.41 (yesterday's high)

Support: $47.21 (low of 17/04/09) Resistance: $49.98 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $49.60 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $53.59 (high of 08/04/09)

Support: $48.59 (low of 02/04/09) Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)

Support: $47.47 (low of 31/03/09) Resistance: $51.92 (yesterday's high)

Report written by: Marius Paun

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (June) of the ICE contracts:

Yesterday's Settlements Oil: June - $49.86 July - $51.00

Yesterday's Settlements WTI: June - $48.51 July - $50.77

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Gold inclined yesterday affected by the PRZ-potential reversal zone- of the bullish harmonic pattern appearing obviously on the above chart as we predicated yesterday-check it here- by placing a temporary high at 888.00. Now as it succeeded to hit 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire rally started at 679.00 and topped out at 1006.00 we expect this upward actions to continue particularly if it succeeds to breach the upper line of the descending channel while Tenkan-sen (moving average of Ichimoku indicator) - currently located at 876.00- and SMA 50 is moving below the current candle stick supports the action. Carefully note that high volume is needed to activate this highly anticipated bullishness.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 845.00 and key resistance now at 935.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 881.00, 876.00, 865.00, 855.00, 845.00
Resistance: 896.00, 907.00, 916.00, 925.00, 930.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy gold at 885.00 with targets at 906.00 and stop loss at 868.00.

Rupee: Rupee in the early trade tested the 50.50 falling trendline resistance giving away all its gains of the last week. Global indices were also negative and dollar recovery against most majors was witnessed. Volatility could be witnessed ahead of the annual policy decision from RBI today. Only 2-3 consecutive closing above 50.50 would turn the rupee outlook bearish. Neutral
Nifty chart update for 21/04/2009

Nifty holded the support level which we have mentioned yesterday.Today the nifty has support at 3340-3342 levels.On the upside move the it has resistant at 3408-3412 levels.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Dow jones chart update

DJI closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. SPI closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. NDI closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
World commodity chart update for 20/04/2009

Crude Oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

Gold closed lower on Wednesday as a rebound in the dollar slashed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this fall's decline, the75% retracement level crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted.

Rupee: Referring to our previous charts and updates we still maintain a bullish view on rupee aiming 48.80 levels. Dollar has slightly gone strong in the last couple of trading sessions which is looked more as a retracement. Only a break above 50.30 would change the view to neutral otherwise indicators are quite bullish. Bullish
Nifty update for 20/04/2009

Nifty has formed the double at the level of 2490-2500 in the hourly chart and also we see a strong negative divergence in the RSI.Support is placed at 3360-3363 if crossed then it will take to 3230 levels very easily.

Friday, April 17, 2009

World commodity update for 17/04/2009

Oil is still moving sideways trapped between the previous mentioned triangle and as the range is very tight we see that we should watch the price action cautiously when the price touches the support at 48.75 and resistance at 49.65. We still expect a slight declines towards 48.75 whereas a breakout occurs below will extended towards the initial support at 47.20 followed aggressively by 42.00 a barrel but firstly we should see a break of 48.75 as a preparation to reach the mentioned targets as far as 52.10 remains intact because if its broken 55.00 should be reached easily.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.40 and the key resistance at 60.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.80 remains intact with targets at 60.00.

Support: 48.75, 47.80, 47.20, 46.15, 45.45
Resistance: 49.65, 50.10, 50.60, 51.35, 51.80
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the contract below 48.75 with targets at 47.20 and stop loss with a four hour close above 49.6

Gold

We saw a sharp decline in gold yesterday as safe haven interest waned following a relative stable equity market with investors continuing to book profits. The move was accentuated by a news report regarding Indian and Chinese support for the International Monetary Fund to sell off its entire gold reserves worth about $100 billion to raise money for less developed countries. So as a result gold fell $14.80 to settle at $876.10/oz breaking below the 9 and 14 day moving averages and now targeting the recent low of April 6th at $866.90/oz.

The short term trend is bearish while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support: $871.50 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $893.75 (yesterday's high)

Support: $866.90 (low of 06/04/09) Resistance: $890.08 (14 day moving average)

Support: $851.90 (low of 23/01/09) Resistance: $882.89 (9 day moving average)


Thursday, April 16, 2009

World commodity update for 16/04/2009

Gold closed higher on Wednesday as equities boosted demand for precious metals as a store of value. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastic and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends Tuesday's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would signal that a low has been posted.

Crude Oil closed higher on Wednesday despite falling in early trading after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years as demand dropped. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastic and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Nifty update for 16/04/2009

Nifty resistant at 3515-3518 levels which is flat is resistant cross over will take it to the fibo retracement level of 3686 levels very easily.Whereas support is placed at the level of 3355-3358.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Nifty update for 15/04/2009

Nifty has hurdles at 3381-3384 which is a long term parallel line failure to cross 3381-3384 levels will lead to 3351-3354 levels and below that watch panic selling upto 3145-31448 levels.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Nifty update for 13/04/2009

Nifty is traveling in the parallel line,parallel line support is placed at 3331-3335 levels and has flat resistant point at 3365-3369 levels.Trading above 3365-3369 will lead to 3410-3415

Thursday, April 9, 2009

World commodity update for 09/04/2009

After the drop occurred towards the initial support at 47.20 whereas it rebounded sharply failed to close the four-hour candle below the pivotal zones of 47.80 keeping the short term to the upside. This correctional move touched 61.8% Fibonacci at 51.20 that makes the intraday direction is unclear trending downside towards yesterday’s mentioned levels but a break of 52.10-52.55 areas makes our analysis invalid.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.40 and the key resistance at 53.60.

The general trend is unclear for the time being and we should watch the price action and the daily close around 47.80 zones.

Support: 49.65, 48.75, 47.80, 47.20, 46.15
Resistance: 50.40, 51.20, 52.10, 52.55, 53.60

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the contract below 51.20 with targets at 48.75 and stop loss with a four hour close above 52.55.

Gold moved slowly in a very tight range between 879.00 and 884.00 during the Asian session continues the anticipated upside recovery by building a solid base gradually as we notice that it’s hitting (38.2%) Fibonacci of the entire medium term rally started at 679.00 and topped out at 1006.00 once more supported by Tenkan-sen (moving average of Ichimoku indicator) while the hourly chart on the secondary image is staging an inclining channel slightly. For all theses technical reasons we will keep our outlook to the upside today as far as the pivotal support at 863.00 remains intact on the intraday basis. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 845.00 and key resistance now at 925.00. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 880.00, 874.00, 865.00, 854.00, 845.00
Resistance: 895.00, 902.00, 907.00, 916.00, 925.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy gold at 884.00 with targets at 906.00 and stop loss at 865.00.

Nifty update for 09/04/2009

Nifty has stiff resistant at 3401-3405 levels.Trading below yesterday's low will turn the market to negative trend.3401-3405 trend line is long term trend line crossover will indicate that the market is strongly positive.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Nifty update for 08/04/2009


Nifty is traveling in a parallel line failure to sustain or cross above the level of 3305-3307 then it will lead to 3140-3143 levels very easily.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

World commodity update for 07/04/2009

Oil declined sharply yesterday breaching the previous mentioned support zones and the correctional level at 52.25 couldn't support it then the lower line of the upward channel was breached _currently-located at 51.35 as we notice that 61.8% Fibonacci level at 49.80 has stopped the downside actions that argue us to say that the short time upward is still in favor , all just we need is a breakout of 51.35 combined with a four hour close above it to guarantee the continuation of the upside direction targeting 53.60 as a preparation for targeting 59.40(the upper line of the mentioned channel) as far as 48.70 remains unbroken.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 47.20 and the key resistance at 59.40.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.80 remains intact with targets at 64.50.

Support: 50.40, 49.80, 48.70, 47.85, 47.20
Resistance: 51.35, 52.10, 52.95, 53.60, 54.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 51.35 with targets at 52.95 and stop loss with a four hour close below 49.80.

Gold

According to what we discussed yesterday, gold has respected the strong support zone around 863.00 whereas it started to incline again forming an engulfing bullish candlestick formation above the mentioned pivotal support confirming our prediction that the upward recovery is under preparation to correct the bearish wave started at 967.00 particularly if it made a successful breakout above 881.00 (38.2%) Fibonacci of the entire medium term rally started at 679.00 and topped out at 1006.00. William% R, CCI and stochastic are supporting our bullish overview on the intraday basis.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 845.00 and key resistance now at 925.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 870.00, 863.00, 855.00, 845.00, 832.00
Resistance: 884.00, 895.00, 902.00, 907.00, 916.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold at 876.00 with targets at 895.00 and stop loss at 860.00.


Monday, April 6, 2009

World commodity update for 06/04/2009

Gold
: Gold took the major trend line and the 21 Daily EMA resistance and plunged to 876 dollars as expected in previous reports. Strategy stays bearish . Sell again at retracement at $908. Bearish (Gold: $876.00)

Crude Oil closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastic and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Nifty update for 06/04/2009

Nifty trading above the level of 3228 will lead to 3325-3335 levels.Breaking above the level of 3325-3335 will lead to 3402-3407 levels easily.Whereas the support is placed at the level of 3060-3063 levels.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

World commodity update for 02/04/2009

GOLD

Indeed, the volatility continues as gold moved up and down aggressively yesterday during the US session but actually it succeeded to test 930.00 (38.2%) Fibonacci as we expected while 916.00-920.00 areas provided it with the support it needs. Now we expect an upward rally resumption breaching the mentioned Fibonacci level as the Tenkan-sen succeeded to pass over Kijun-sen forcing gold to enter the cloud of Ichimoku in addition to the histogram of MACD traditional positive overlapping appears on the main image. Also the curreny hourly camarilla studies shows the possibility of slight actions towards 925.00 (pivotal support point) followed by a violent upside wave.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 892.00 and key resistance now at 974.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 920.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 935.00, 945.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold at 926.00 with targets at 950.00 and stop loss at 907.00.

Nifty update for 02/04/2009

Nifty sustains above the yesterday's high then it will lead to target of 3114-3118.Failure to sustain above the yesterday's high will take nifty to the level of 2961-2963 in coming days

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

World commodity update for 01/04/2009

Mixed movements controlled oil price actions yesterday as it moved sharply downward breaching the initial support at 48.80 but the previous mentioned correction level around 47.80 (61.8%) Fibonacci protected it from collapsing and helped it to incline recording yesterday’s high but once more it moved downward below the mentioned support. Hence with the stable moving below 49.35 (support turned into resistance) we see that the negative pressure will continue towards 47.80 but the short term up move predication didn’t change yet but a break of which will lead us towards 46.20 followed by 43.55 as a confirmation of the short term direction towards 40.00 $ a barrel.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.55 and the key resistance at 54.65.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.80 remains intact with targets at 64.50.

Support: 48.25, 47.80, 47.05, 46.55, 46.20
Resistance: 48.80, 49.35, 49.85, 50.45, 50.80

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it’s good to sell the contract with a break out occurs below 47.80 with targets at 46.55 and stop loss with a four hour close above 48.80 but a break of 49.35 with a confirmed hourly close we can buy the contract at 49.35 with targets at 50.80 and stop loss with a four hour close below 48.25.

Gold

The range trading continues as we explained several times before and as we notice on the secondary hourly chart that gold is still preparing for a price explosion and we think it will be to the downside depending on the continuation classical pattern for the downside rally started at 967.00 appearing obviously on the 4h chart while the negative pressure of the cluster resistance at 930.00 (38.2%) Fibonacci is still in favor. Indicators show that it’s totally overbought and at the same time Ichimoku and Gator oscillator indicators support this bearishness as far as 940.00 remains unbroken. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 892.00 and key resistance now at 963.00. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00, 892.00
Resistance: 925.00, 935.00, 945.00, 945.00, 956.00, 963.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold at 920.00 with targets at 898.00 and stop loss at 937.00