Friday, January 30, 2009

Nifty daily update for 30/01/2009


Nifty has completed the relief rally as we have to say and stopped exactly at 2873 levels.As already informed in yesterday's post nifty touched the resistant level and fell back to the support level found at 2810-2820 levels.The 2840-2850 acts as a breakout level which has been tested already and again tested yesterday.Now if nifty trades below yesterday's low of 2795 we take to 2740-2750 levels.

Below that wave support placed at 2600-2630 levels.
MCX CRUDE OIL UPDATE FOR 30/01/2009


Crude oil has support at 1980-1970,if broken we may see the level of 1750-1760 very soon.
For fresh up move it has to move above 2080-2090.

MCX GOLD UPDATE FOR 30/01/2009


Gold if trades above 14172 it can move upto to 14300-14320 and it has support at 13760-13780.breaking below support will take to 13000-13050 levels.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Crude oil update for 29/01/2009

Break of 41.40 support suggests that recent rebound has completed at 48.59 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. As mentioned before, with 50.47 resistance intact, short term outlook of Crude oil remains bearish. And the current decline should extend towards 30 psychological level next on resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. On resumption, crude oil should head towards lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04 next. On the upside, though, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.

Gold update for 29/01/2009

Gold's retreat from 916.3 is still in progress and touching 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 873.62) as expected. At this point, further consolidation could still be seen. Though, downside of the pull back is expected to be contained by 852.1 support and bring rally resumption. Above 916.3 will target mentioned key near term resistance at 936.3. However, below 852.1 will put focus back to lower channel support at 826 level.

In the bigger picture, break of 892 resistance revives the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Nifty update for 29/01/2009


Exactly nifty stopped at the res level at 2850-2860 just as mentioned by me in yesterday's post.Now if it trades above the yesterday's high or above my resistant we will see the level of 2890-2900 by today's trading session itself,and above that level it may head towards 2940-2960.Technically speaking the stochastic indicator is in oversold zone so expect some profit booking and also due to monthly contract expiry.

Now move ur nifty future stop loss to 2810-2800 levels.

Yesterday's performance in intraday
Nifty update for 28/01/2009


Yesterday Nifty broke out the falling wedge pattern projecting the target of 3055 levels in coming days.Today nifty faces hurdles in 2810-2820 area above that next hurdles is been placed at 2850-2860 levels.Now for support if nifty trades above 2720-2730 (breakout point) levels without breaking,the uptrend is still in intact.Minor support if found at 2765-2750 levels.

One can go long in nifty maintaining the breakout point (2720-2730) as stoploss.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Nifty update for 27/01/2009


Due to poor globe cues nifty was not able to sustain above 2700.Now the 2700 level has become res.nifty has res at 2700 which is a breakout point.On Friday nifty took support 2660 exactly at the trend line.As far as today is concerned we see a positive divergence in hourly chart in rsi which a good signal for buying.Nifty has hurdle at 2700 and we also have 13 EMA placed at 2703 so it becomes strong resistant above that nifty can move up to 2720.If nifty is able to sustain and close above 2730 we could see a big rally,nearly 333 points from the breakout(2730-2750) because of falling wedge pattern.At the same time if it breaks and close below 2630 will lead to target of 2297.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Nifty weekly chart 25/01/2009




Last week nifty kept up the support found at the falling trend line.As far as the trend line holds there is chance of market being positive for coming weeks.Whereas close below the trend line will bring panic in the market.A cross and close above 2860-80 will take to 2980-3020 levels and above that 3140-3150.

We also noticed that the weekly RSI has already turned down from the trend line indicating weakness and projecting the downtrend.The coming week will provide us the result about which side the market is going to move.

Crucial support is 2634-2650,if closed below this levels more panic!

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil edges higher today but lacks follow through buying so far. Further rally is still mildly in favor as long as 41.40 minor support holds. Note that, while key near term level remains of 50.47 resistance, the case of reversal continues to build up. Firstly, downside momentum continued to decrease with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Secondly, Crude oil is now pressing medium term trend line resistance (extended from 147.27 to 110.45). Break of 50.47 will confirm that a short term low is at least formed and bring strong rebound. On the downside, though, failure below 50.47 and break of 41.40 minor support will argue that down trend remains intact and is possibly resuming.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. On resumption, crude oil should head towards lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04 next. On the upside, though, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.


GOLD

Gold's rally extends further to as high as 908.20 today and at this point, further rise is still expected as long as 852.10 support holds, targeting 936.3 key near term resistance. On the downside, below 852.1 will be a warning that choppy rise from 681 has completed. Further break of 801.5 will confirm this case and turn short term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, break of 892 resistance revives the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

38 Steps to Successful Commodities Futures Trading

1.We accumulate trading information - buying books, going to seminars and
researching.
2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or
information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts
setting in.
8.We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more trading information.
12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and
more knowledge then we anticipated.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many Traders Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved
15.We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is
missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we
still hesitate when it comes time to execute. We start trading again, this time with
rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to
execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with
our rules.
21. We go back into the market and continue to donate. We go back into the market
and continue to donate.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our
success is in us, not the trade methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our
rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are
erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our
rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our
trades when we don't follow them.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in
following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing
ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but
successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract
size.
37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always
dreamed of.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Nymex crude oil update for 23/01/2009

Crude oil's rebound might have completed at 45.10 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. After all, with 50.47 resistance intact, short term outlook is still bearish. Break of 40.24 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. However, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD, break of 50.47 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04.

Gold

Gold rises further to 878.3 today and break of 869.3 suggests that fall from 892 has completed as a correction to 801.5 already. Further rally is now expected to 892 resistance first then test on key structure resistance at 938.3. On the downside, though, below 843.5 will argue that rise from 801.5 has completed and will turn short term outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, it remains to be confirmed on whether rise from 681 has completed. Though, as long as 801.5, such rise may still continue and target 936.3 resistance. Break of which will add much credence to the case that medium term consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 618 already and should then bring retest of this high. However, below 801.5 will shift favor to the case that such consolidation is still in progress for at least another fall to retest 681 low before completion.


Nifty update for 23/01/2009



Yesterday nifty was able to close above the 2700.Now for today the support is found at 2645-2630.we also have fibo level placed at 2645-2630 levels(fibo from 2500-2147) which will be strong support for today.A breach of this level will take to 2570-2550.Resistant is found at 2700-2715 levels.A strong close above 2750 will stop the down trend for short term.It is not going to that easy because we have so much hurdles found in between 2700-2750 level.A weekly close below 2700 will bring fast the 2250 level very quickly.
MCX gold update for 23/01/2009



Gold has res placed at 13650-13700 above that it can move up to 13755.If it sustains above 13755 we may see a rally up to 14030 levels.Support is found at 13370-13350.
MCX Crude oil update for 23/01/2009




MCX crude oil is in buy mode it has given breakout for target of 2280-2300.support is found at 2050-2070

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Nymex Crude Oil 

Crude oil's rebound continues today and reaches as high as 45.10 so far. But still, with 50.47 resistance remains intact, short term outlook is still bearish. Break of 40.24 minor support will indicate that current recovery has completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside. However, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD, break of 50.47 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04.


Comex Gold 

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place. The bearish case remains intact for the moment as Gold is still holding below mentioned 869.30 support. Below 823.6 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 801.5 support will indicate that fall from 892 has resumed for 741.2 support first. On the upside, however, break of 869.30 will dampen the bearish case and indicate that fall from 892 is merely a pull back in the rise from 681. In such case, retest of 892 should at least be seen.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936.3 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033.9 might still be in progress. Below 741.2 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936.3 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033.9 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009


Nifty update for 22/01/2008


Nifty closed at 2706 which is the crucial support level.Due to poor performance by the world market the nifty was not able to perform well.Now if nifty close below 2700 level we may see 2500 level in a day or two.If the 2700 support holds then we may see a bounce back upto 2800-2850 level.

Res levels:2727,2765,2825
Support levels:2668,2630

Nymex crude oil

No change in Crude oil's outlook. Short term outlook remains bearish as long as 50.47 resistance holds. While current consolidation might continue, another fall is still expected to be seen towards next key support at 25.04. Though, a break above 50.05/47 resistance zone will be a strong signal that medium term fall has completed on bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD and should then bring strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04.

Gold

Gold turns sideway after rise from 801.5 is limited below 869.30 resistance. Though, further rise could still be seen and focus remains on 869.30. Break will dampen the bearish case and indicate that fall from 892 is merely a pull back in the rise from 681. In such case, retest of 892 should at least be seen. On the downside, though, below 823.6 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 801.5 support will indicate that fall from 892 has resumed for 741.2 support first.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936.3 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033.9 might still be in progress. Below 741.2 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936.3 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033.9 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.

Nifty update for 21/01/2009



Nifty holded the support of 2750 level in yesterday trading session.This support was already tested 4 times.Now if nifty trades with holding yesterdays low then we may see rally upto 2900 with small hurdles at 2815-2845-2885 level.where as breaking yesterday's low will lead to 2700-2715 levels.


In big picture nifty is still trading in channal a weekly close above 2890-2900 will take nifty to 3140-3150 levels

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Crude oil update for march contract

We have now moved to Crude contracts for March 2009 delivery after the February contract closed at the 34 per barrel level. The downside direction is still dominating the new contract with a resistance level at 43.20 and the combination of the 50 and 100 day MA on the four hour charts at 42 could result in further downside movements to reach the 61.8% extention at 38 as seen in the above picture. The ADX indicator supports our expectations as it is pointing to the downisde yet momentum indicators show crude being slightly overbought where the latter could result in volatility in the markets but we still see that the overall trend is to the downside on the short term.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 34.5 and the key resistance at 45. The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.remains intact with targets at 35 and 32


Gold

We can see now the strength of the resistance level where despite the metal reaching levels above 880, candles on the four hour chart closed below the 871 5 critical level where most were actually below 868. Gold is losing its bullish momentum gradually but to confirm this, we should watch the breach of the 854 level closely and we will not witness another upside wave unless gold builds a solid base above 888.50 The trading range for today is among the key support at 814. and the key resistance at 923 The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649 and 616

Monday, January 19, 2009

Nifty update for 20/01/2009



Nifty took support at the 2820 region and maintianed the level till the end.As mentioned in my last message that it will move to 2880-2890 only when it is able to sustain above 2850 but it was not able to stay above 2850 level it moved back to below 2850 level and closed neutral.
For tommorrow the support remians the same as 2820 region,now if it crosses yesterdays high of 2868 level than it can move to 2900-2915 levels very easily.

STOCKS

Buy ZEEL above 134 for target of 140-142 stoploss of 120
Buy ONGC above 678 for target of 700-705 stoploss of 639
Buy PNB above 461 for target of 472-475 stoploss 444

Join me in yahoo messanger for live tips on nifty for FREE.(ID:balubalu_1576@yahoo.co.in)

Crude oil

Short term outlook in crude oil will remain bearish as long as key resistance of 50.50 holds. Medium term down trend is likely still in progress and further decline could be seen towards 25 support. However, a break above 50. level will be taken as an important alert that a short term bottom is at least formed. Strong rebound should be seen in such case.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 35. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 35 indicates that such down trend from 147 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04.

On the upside, however, a break above 5050 will firstly indicate that rise from 34.98 has resumed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 90.50 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147 to 25at 91)

Gold

No change in Gold's outlook so far. With daily MACD staying well below signal line, we're favoring the case that corrective rise from 681 has completed at 892 level. Below 801.50 will indicate that fall from 892 has resumed for 741 support first. Break will confirm this case and bring retest of 681 low. On the upside, however, a break above 869 resistance will dampen this view and argues that fall from 892 is merely a pull back. Further rally could then be seen to this 892 high or above.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936 resistance, whole consolidation from 1034 might still be in progress. Below 741 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1034 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.



Saturday, January 17, 2009

Nifty Update for 19/01/2009


On Friday nifty touched the support level of 2724 level and ralied to close at 2828 level.Now for Monday (19/01/2009).If nifty trades above 2830-2850 level for 15-20 min next hurdle is placed at 2880-2890 level.Nifty need more power to cross this level to reach 2950 level.So,we may not see this level(2950) on monday.Maximum it can flare upto 2880-2890 level.No shorting at that levels too!.

STOCKS

Buy SAIL above 80.50 for target of 88-90 with stoploss 72.50
Buy HCLTECH above 120 for target of 130.50 with stoploss of 109
Sell DLF below 182 for target 166 with stoploss of 209

Join me in yahoo messanger for live tips on nifty for FREE.(ID:balubalu_1576@yahoo.co.in)
Nifty Weekly View


As far as weekly view is considered nifty closed above the 2810,which is a crucial level, if it were close below 2810 level then it opens the path for downtrend very easily.2810-2775 level has a very good support since it is a downward trending channel.On upside a weekly close above 3240-3260 level will lead nifty to 3800 level very easily but chances seems to be not supporting that levels easily.On downside a weekly close below 2810-2775 level will lead nifty to break previous lows i also mean October low very quickly.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Nymex crude

From a short term angle, 50/47 resistance remains key in crude oil's outlook. As long as this levels holds, medium term down trend is still in progress and further fall could be seen towards 25 support. However, a break above 50/47 level will be taken as an important alert that a short term bottom is at least formed. Strong rebound should be seen in such case.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.

On the upside, however, a break above 50 will firstly indicate that rise from 35 has resumed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 90 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147 to 24 at 91)

Gold

Gold recovers mildly after hitting 801 and touching of 831 minor resistance turns intraday outlook neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that with daily MACD staying below signal line, rebound from 681 has possibly completed at 892 already. Further fall is still in favor after recovery. Break of 741 support will confirm this case and bring decline to 681 low and below. On the upside, above 869 resistance is needed to turn bias back to the upside for 936 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033 might still be in progress. Below 741 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.





Nymex crude oil

Crude oil's fall is so far contained above 35 low and turns sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 41.18 resistance holds and further fall should be seen to retest 35. Break will confirm that medium term down trend is resuming. On the upside above 41 will turn short term outlook neutral and put focus back to 50 resistance.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 35. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 will indicate that such down trend from 147 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25

On the upside, however, a break above 50 will firstly indicate that rise from 35 has resumed. More importantly, the possible head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 40, h, 35, rs: ?) will revive that case that a medium term bottom is formed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 91 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147 to 25 at 91)


Gold

Gold continues to dip lower today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 831 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, with daily MACD staying below signal line, rebound from 681 has possibly completed at 892 already. Break of 741 support will confirm this case and bring decline to 681 low and below. On the upside, above 869 resistance is needed to revive turn bias back to the upside for 936 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033 might still be in progress. Below 741 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.


Once again nifty took support at 2700-2710.Breaking of the support is unlikely at the point.Expect nifty to sustain above 2700-2710 levels today.Nifty will test 2810-2800 region today if it sustains above 2820 level next target will be 2850.A strong close above 2850 level will lead nifty to 2950 level easily.

Thursday, January 15, 2009



As informed earlier nifty tested the res at 2815 level in first half of the trading and declined to test the support at 2750 level.and at second half nifty pulled up and broke the res 2815 and finally closed at 2835 which is the next res.Now as for tommorrow if it sustains above 2850-2860 next level nifty can stop at 2950 only.

overall trend is negative as long as it remains below 3150 level.maximum this rally can reach upto 2950 level.At that level close all the long position and initiate new short with stoploss of 2950 level.

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oils' decline from 50.47 is still in progress and reaches as low as 36.10 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 41.18 minor resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to retest 34.98 low. Break will confirm that medium term down trend is resuming. On the upside above 41.18 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 50.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 will indicate that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04. On the upside, however, a break above 50.47 will firstly indicate that rise from 34.98 has resumed. More importantly, the possible head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 40.50, h, 34.98, rs: ?) will revive that case that a medium term bottom is formed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 90.51 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147.27 to 24.98 at 91.25)


Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's break of 829.8 support, with daily MACD staying below signal line, indicates that rebound from 681 has likely completed at 892 already. Short term outlook is turned bearish for 741.2 support first and break will confirm this case. Deeper decline should then be seen retest 681 low again. On the upside, above 869.3 is needed to revive turn bias back to the upside for 936.3 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936.3 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033.9 might still be in progress. Below 741.2 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to completion this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 935.3 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033.9 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.


Wednesday, January 14, 2009

WORLD COMMODITY

Crude continues to trade within a descending channel targeting the 34.80 level as an initial target before reaching 32.25. The 36.85 level which is a pivot point separating the upside from downside movements where trading below this level will allow crude to reach the target faster. We need to keep a lookout for the 36.40 level which is a support level for the minor channel which could be a correction point before continuing to fall.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.25 and the key resistance at 38.40

The general trend is to the downside as far as 92.30 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25

Support: 36.00, 35.60, 35.10, 34.20, 32.25
Resistance: 36.65, 37.60, 37.80, 38.10, 38.80


GOLD:The decline we have been waiting for occurred where we are now heading towards the key support for the ascending channel at 807.45 in an attmept to breach it. The overbought area seen on momentum indicators will cause slight upside corrections but we still expect the downside trend to dominate the short term after breaching the ascending channel in the picture above.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 773.20 and the key resistance at 866.95

The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60

Support: 820.90, 814.05, 807.45, 799.00, 784.90
Resistance: 830.80, 835.40, 836.40, 838.80, 846.80



Nifty kept holding the 2710 level as i said earlier nifty has taken support at 2720 level.Tommorrow we can expect a bounce in nifty(to be positive).If it sustains above 2756 level than nifty can go upto 2790-2800 level and above 2800 if it sustains for 30 min expect nifty to go upto 2830-2850 level.
Chances are that nifty can be positive tommorrow.




In big picture nifty turned down after testing the downward sloping channel(yellow line) (3133).Now another downward sloping channel(orange line) which is placed at 2702 level will act as support and if that has been broken nifty will fall even faster and testing of previous low will be seen in short term.so any rise exit long and initate new short for target of 2250-2300

Tuesday, January 13, 2009


Expect nifty to be today and tommorrow.in bounce back nifty can touch 2825 and above that 2860 level.on the downside if it sustains below 2710 level it can go upto 2570 level very soon(chances are very rare to reach that levels today)