How I trade for a living.
1. Develop systematic trading rules for short term trading (Day Trades & Swing Trades)
2. Implement these rules blindly during market hours. (No questions asked. If there is a signal, take it)
3. Review the performance of the rules every month.
4. Every day, work on new ideas, plans, meaning : the main task is research.
Performance:
All trades have stop losses
Percentage winners are 40. Means 60% of trades are losers.
Profits must be run to the maximum possible.
What is the Arithmetic ?
What follows is a theoritical example. Say, there are 100 trades in a month.
40 winners make average 15 points each (after costs). Total 600 points
60 losers lose average 8 points each (after costs) Total 480 points
Net gain: 120 points
Why trading is difficult for most people ?
Not willing to take losses. Most will not be able to take 60% losers.
Not willing to understand that Market movements are unpredictable. Here is an example. There are 60 losers. But the losers are likely to be distributed un-evenly. Maybe 10 losers came in a succession (one after the other), then six winners came, then one loser, then one winner.....Most traders will not be able to handle 10 losers one after the other.
Not willing to take profits. Most traders will jump to cash in a few points. They miss out on the really big moves that can make a year of trading.
Why I can do this ?
First, I have given my dues to the market. This means I have made many mistakes that traders make. (luckily, I always kept my positions small, so I was saved from any 'wipe out' ).
Next, I have confidence in my trading methods. Why ? I spend a lot of time doing tests over past data. If the method has made money over the last two years, it should make money in the future. If the method has given 12 losses in a succession in the past, it is likely to do so in the future. And so on....
What are the basic principles of trading ?
Have rules.
Cut your losses short.
Let your profits run
Follow your rules
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
World commodity update for 27/02/2009
Crude is currently at critical points which is the 76.4% correction alongside the resistance for a possible contracting triangle which lies at 45.00 - 45.10. Several possible scenarios for the correction which we see is a CT yet the medium term trend is still to the downside and the short term and intraday trends are yet to be determined. Momentum indicators are showing negative signs which supports the possibility for further declines but we need a confirmation from the ADX indicator.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 41.10 and the key resistance at 47.75
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 44.20, 43.40, 42.85, 42.25, 41.85
Resistance: 45.05, 45.60, 46.20, 46.60, 47.75
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to sell the contract below 45.00 with targets at 42.85 and stop loss with a four hour close above 46.60 (only for risk takers)
Gold is moving according to the possible Elliott sequence which we explained in our previous reports and the correctional level at 38.2% Fibonacci of the whole impulsive move started at $801.00 per ounce stopped the last decline and ended by a bullish candle stick formation so that we expect more incline today as far as 917.00 remains intact. Notes: 1-RSI shows an oversold signal. 2-MACD shows a bullish sign.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 907.00 and key resistance now at 984.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 900.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 935.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 947.00, 952.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 940.00 with targets at 965.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 925.00.
Nifty is holding the crucial support level at 2745-2750.If it is a symmetrical triangle we can expect the breakout within one or two days.If the support level hold nifty face resistant at 2800-2805 if it crosses 2800-2805 next it can move to 2865-2870 levels very quickly.MACD is in negative crossover indicating bearish signal but the RSI is in positive divergence in hourly chart.So trade carefully with appropriate stop loss.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
World commodity update for 26/02/2009
After the crossover between the 9 and 14 day moving average we had another bullish signal yesterday with crude breaking and holding above the 40 day moving average. The move was significant as oil gained in excess of 2 dollars in a range of $3.43. If the rally continues we are looking at the upside target around $50.00 level but at the same time a decline towards $33.22 mark should also be taken into consideration.
The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $40.57 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $44.41 (high of 21/01/09)
Support: $39.39 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $43.44 (high of 30/01/09)
Support: $38.77 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $42.82 (yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $43.14 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)
Support: $42.08 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.50 (high of 13/02/09)
Support: $41.85 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.72 (40 day moving average)
Gold
Despite the downward movements that occurred yesterday after reaching the resistance areas at $977.00 per ounce which was the target area of our mid-day report yesterday but still the scenario of Elliott wave sequence which we explained in the previous report is still in progress as internal (A) leg is expected to complete the 5 waves internal impulsive wave around or above 935.00-930.00 areas followed by the (B) correctional leg which we think that it will retest the broken trend as shown on the above 4h chart. Note: MACD traditional supports the bullish scenario.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 925.00 and key resistance now at 984.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 900.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 940.00, 935.00, 925.00, 917.00, 912.00
Resistance: 956.00, 963.00, 973.00, 977.00, 984.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 950.00 with targets at 970.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 930.00.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Nifty was not able to cross 2800 levels yesterday.William R indicator has turned down so expect some profit booking at this levels.Test of the support at 2710-2715 is likely at this juncture if the level of 2755-2760 is broken .In hourly chart we see that nifty is traveling in a channel,as far as nifty travel's in a channel the down trend is intact even has chance to go down to 2660-2665 levels very easily.
Crude moved higher yesterday gaining $1.63 for the day with 9 and 40 day moving averages providing good support and resistance respectively. In an almost mirror image oil gained what actually gave back a day before but we notice that overnight the 9 and 14 day MA have crossed each other as if reluctantly trying to give a signal. More confirmation is needed so until then it's rather sideways.
The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $37.71 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $41.78 (high of 10/02/08)
Support: $37.53 (low of 20/02/09) Resistance: $41.50 (high of 23/02/09)
Support: $36.63 (low of 16/02/09) Resistance: $40.41 (40 day moving average)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $40.43 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.00 (high of 17/02/09)
Support: $38.58 (low of 30/12/08) Resistance: $43.44 (14 day moving average)
Support: $36.20 (low of 24/12/08) Resistance: $42.60 (yesterday's high)
Gold: Gold lost almost $35 against the greenback yesterday touching the bids of $959.50 after reaching $1000 last Friday. All the charts continue to show further fall with immediate support coming in at $939 (21 Daily EMA). Initiate shorts around $960 -$ 964 for $10 - $12 gain. (Gold: $958.15)
Yesterday we have mentioned that nifty has support at 2665-2680,it touched the support at 2677 and bounced back.Now nifty has hurdles at 2800-2815 cross and close above this level will be positive for the market.Above that nifty can move to 2900-2905 levels.Best strategy is go long with stop loss of the yesterday's low.In Hourly chart we see a positive divergence in RSI.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Crude oil rose above $40 a barrel in New York after Asian equity markets gained on signs the U.S. government is taking steps to prevent further bank failures, preventing the recession from deepening. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may decide to make another production cut should oil prices continue to fall, Chakib Khelil, the Algerian oil minister and former OPEC president, said yesterday. Crude Oil is trading at $40.075 as of 9:05am, GMT.
Gold declined in Asia as some investors sold the metal to lock in gains after it rallied above $1,000 an ounce last week for the first time in almost a year. The cost of fiscal stimulus packages and a decline in tax revenues because of the global recession has left investors worried about 'currency debasement and the possibility of higher long-term inflation,' John Reade, UBS AG analyst, said in a report. 'We believe that it is these fears that have triggered the recent surge of investment flows into gold.'
The life of a trade can vary a great deal depending on whether the trade involves a listed, Nasdaq or over-the-counter bulletin board security. The following description is intended to give you a general idea of how the process of trading stocks works.
Trading is based on supply and demand. When you buy or sell a stock, you are literally trading with another investor — someone in your city, across the country or on the other side of the world. An order from you to buy a stock must be matched with a seller's order to sell. If you place an order on the Nasdaq, or one of the many other exchanges, this match may be done electronically.
If your order is sent to the trading room floor of one of the exchanges, the auction process begins. A member of the stock exchange walks to the appropriate trading area where your stock is traded and presents your order. Sometimes there will be a broker in the crowd with a sell order at the same price. In this case your order will be completed or filled. Brokers must often act quickly or risk missing the market. If a broker hesitates, a competitive bid could be placed, driving up the market price for the next trade.
The broker may also hand your order to a specialist. The specialist is a person in each trading area, whose job is to guarantee a fair and orderly market by matching buys and sells or by buying or selling themselves if needed. When an order is away from the market, it can be placed under a specialist's care. From this point on the specialist is in charge of representing your order.
If you placed a GTC order with us, it would stay open until it is filled, canceled by you, or until the last day of the next calendar month. If the order is filled, the broker or specialist will report the fill to us. You can choose to be contacted by phone, fax or e-mail. Of course, if you monitor the Order Status section of the website, you can also see when the order is filled. You will also receive a U.S. Mail copy of your order confirmation and fill. You should check your order confirmation carefully no matter how it is received.
Once the order is filled another process kicks into place; one which is generally invisible to you. First the fill is reported to the Market Data System of the exchange. This system transmits the trade details such as the stock name, the number of shares traded and the price of the trade to all interested parties through the ticker tape. The trade can be seen online, TV or through other media by the investor and other interested parties. The ticker tape will also update the information (sometimes with a time lag) on your Quote Monitor.
The tickets sent to your brokerage firm and the brokerage firm of the person who bought or sold the stock from you is entered into a computer. Over the next few hours, the two trades are matched to make sure they agree. If they do not agree, the brokers meet again to settle any differences. This will not affect your fill. Once agreement is ensured, the settlement process begins. Settlement of the trade generally occurs three business days from the actual trade date. Upon settlement the brokerage firms exchange (usually electronically) the stock certificates and the money for the stock.
Friday, February 20, 2009
World commodity update for 20/02/2009
Crude prices rose during yesterday's trading after reaching 37.10 where it exited an intraday downside trend and the 23.6% correction at 39.60 was able to limit further gains. Despite us still expecting a decline in the upcoming period, an upside correction may be needed to exit an oversold area on the short and medium term. As long as trading is above 38.70, this could drive crude to 41.15 which is the 38.2% correction.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 34.70 and the key resistance at 43.65
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 38.70, 38.00, 37.25, 36.15, 35.20
Resistance: 39.60, 40.00, 41.15, 41.55, 42.40
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the contract above 38.70 with targets at 41.15 and stop loss with a four hour close below 37.70
GOLD
Confirming our bullish outlook, it's clear that gold is building a new upward base above the upper line of the diagonal besides forming a classical bullish pattern above Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, the previous mentioned and expected move towards $1000.00 per ounce is still in favor and a break of which will accelerate the move towards 1017.00 followed by the historical high at 1035.00. Note: 1- Areas around 956.00 became the initial support. 2- Stochastic supports the bullish outlook. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 940.00 and key resistance now at 1035.00 level. The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060. 00
Support: 970.00, 963.00, 956.00, 952.00, 945.00
Resistance: 984.00, 995.00, 1000.00, 1017.00, 1025.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 976.00 with targets at 995.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 960.00.
Yesterday we have given that it will not break the support level at 2750-2760.What we have wrote has happened.Just touched the low of 2767.As far as today is concerned on the day chart nifty is preparing for the breakout.Traveling in a triangle,breakout point will be around 300-400 points.We see a negative EMA crossover in the MACD on the day chart.so expect negative breakout.Yesterday we have given on the hourly chart that MACD has given positive crossover but hurdles at 2810-2815,sO We dont expect the crossover of 2810-2815 levels easily.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
World commodity update for 19/02/2009
Initially crude strengthened ahead of US open giving bulls some temporary respite but eventually turned around and finished the day lower losing another 71 cents in a range of $1.70. Probably the most important feature was the fact that oil reached new lows at $37.24 and we are now looking at around the $33 level as the next downside target. The chart shows a set of 8 straight sessions all finishing down since the 9th of Feb indicating a bearish pattern overall.
The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $37.24 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $41.30 (9 day moving average)
Support: $33.22 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $40.65 (high of 26/12/08)
Support: $30.00 (psychological level) Resistance: $38.94 (yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $39.35 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $43.92 (9 day moving average)
Support: $38.58 (low of 30/12/08) Resistance: $43.18 (high of 29/12/08)
Support: $36.20 (low of 24/12/08) Resistance: $41.77 (yesterday's high)
GOLD
According to our previous reports for this week gold finally placed a high of the upward wave at 987.00 (we expected it around 988.00), actually all positive effects which we explained before didn't change yet , now we still expect more incline toward $1000.00 per ounce followed by $1017.00. This intraday outlook will be bullish as far as 956 remains unbroken . Notes: 1-The ladder candle stick formation is still in progress as a result of profits taking movements. 2-The support zones which will be responsible for resuming the expected medium term bullish scenario is now at 950.00 instead of 930.00.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 940.00 and key resistance now at 1035.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.
Support: 870.00, 863.00, 856.00, 852.00, 845.00
Resistance: 884.00, 895.00, 1000.00, 1017.00, 1025.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 980.00 with targets at 1005.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 963.00.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Nifty holded the support level at 2750 and closed at 2776.Now for today the support is placed at 2750-2760.If nifty move above 2810-2815 and trades for 15-20 min expect the level of 2840-2845.Hourly chart indicates that if the level of 2810-2815 is holded positive for market.MACD is turning up,it should cross to confirm upward movement.
World commodity update for 18/02/2009
Crude moved sharply lower yesterday touching new recent lows at $37.99 level. It was a significant move almost entirely downwards from the opening which saw oil losing nearly 3.5 dollars or 8% for the day. As we mentioned in the previous report ‘slowly but surely' the moving averages are beginning to point south with the crude price well below them. So after a period of sideways movement the chart indicates a bearish picture yet again.
The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $37.99 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $42.67 (high of 16/02/09)
Support: $33.22 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $42.31 (9 day moving average)
Support: $30.00 (psychological level) Resistance: $41.44 (yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $40.23 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $46.50 (high of 13/02/09)
Support: $38.58 (low of 30/12/08) Resistance: $45.50 (high of 16/02/09)
Support: $36.20 (low of 24/12/08) Resistance: $44.00 (yesterday's high)
Gold
As safe haven buying continued yesterday gold rallied sharply touching its highest point since July 2008 at $974.22/oz level. The move was significant in a range of nearly $35 and was triggered by financial markets uncertainty as investors fled equities for the yellow metal. So the big sell off in equities probably came as a reminder that in troubled times gold can be used as a hedge against weakness in other assets and with stocks expected to retest their November 2008 lows in the coming weeks the precious metal is in a very favorable position.
The short, medium and long term trends are all bullish.
Support: $939.70 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $1000.00 (psychological level)
Support: $935.51 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $981.45 (high of 16/07/08)
Support: $931.90 (low of 13/02/09) Resistance: $974.22 (yesterday's high)
We wrote yesterday nifty will touch 2760-2765 the same has happened,it touched 2757 and closed at 2770.Now for today nifty has support at 2750-2760 if trades below 2750 will take it to 2675-2685.Nifty has broken the upward parallel channel projecting the target of 2684 in coming trading session.The nifty was traveling in a parallel about 162 points for two weeks but it was violated yesterday bring an end to upward movement.Nifty should move above 2810-2830 for showing some strength.We may also see a little pull back since the hourly indicators are in oversold zone.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
World commodity update for 17/02/2009
Please note the chart is now based on April WTI
The same tight range losing just 13 cents overall could describe the April WTI contract yesterday. Technically the moving averages provide good resistance and we can notice the 9 and 14 day ma reluctantly trying to move downwards breaking the bunch but the move is too modest to be interpreted as a signal. The next downside target is the low of 2009 at $40.88 level which could be challenged soon.
The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $40.96 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.04 (14 day moving average)
Support: $40.88 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $43.50 (9 day moving average)
Support: $37.99 (low of 24/12/09) Resistance: $42.67 (yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $43.15 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $47.20 (high of 15/01/09)
Support: $42.79 (low of 09/01/09) Resistance: $46.50 (high of 13/02/09)
Support: $41.84 (low of 13/01/09) Resistance: $45.50 (yesterday's high)
Gold
The bullish pattern was and still is clear and exactly as we explained in our previous reports gold succeeded to breach our yesterday expected point at (950.00-952.00) easily in the second technical try. Today's overview will remain to the upside toward 1000.00 psychological levels as a first target for this incline and this will not change as far as the price settle above the intraday support now at 916.00. Our bullish expectation is based on: 1- The bullish pattern as shown on the above chart. 2- Stability above ICHIMOKU cloud. 3- Gator oscillator bullish signals.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 916.00 and key resistance now at 1000.00 psychological level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00.
Support: 952.00, 947.00, 943.00, 935.00, 925.00
Resistance: 965.00, 973.00, 980.00, 988.00, 1000.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 962.00 with targets at 988.00and stop loss with a four hour close below 943.00.
Yesterday given that we may see a fall back in nifty.Just see it came to the parallel trend line and settled the day.In hourly chart nifty was not able to touch the upper trend line indicating selling pressure.Now the support is placed at 2840-2845,breach of the support level will take to 2760-2765 within hours only.MACD indicator has turned down confirming the trend to negative.
Monday, February 16, 2009
World commodity update for 16/02/2009
The 34.20 level was able to limit crude from declining further to rebound to the upside as it was also being oversold on the stochastic indicator. Trading is near the critical 39.10 resistance level which is just above the 38.75 resistance. Despite the fact that we see the trend to the downside, crude needs to correct to the upside but as fa res 39.10 remains intact and the 20 MA at 40.65, the trend is to the downside.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 33.70 and the key resistance at 40.65
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 36.85, 35.60, 35.10, 34.85, 34.20
Resistance: 37.80, 38.75, 39.15, 39.70, 40.65
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that its good to sell below 38.75 with targets at 36.15 and stop loss with a four hour close above 39.15
Nifty closed exactly at the resistant line if it is able to sustain above 2950 then next target will be 2990-3000 above that watch big move up to 3090-3100.Failure to hold above 2950 will lead to 2885-2895 in coming trading session itself.We see that the RSI is touching the trend line so expect some fall back.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
But investing is only part of your financial life. It may well be the
most important part of your financial picture long-term. But it’s only
part.
1. Cash Flow Planning. Where does your money for daily living come
from, and how is it being spent?
2. Tax Planning. More than filing a tax return, this area includes issues
like whether to invest in a traditional or Roth individual retirement
account (IRA), how much tax you save in a 401(k)
plan, and whether you should use a Section 529 educational savings
plan.
3. Retirement Planning. Some people prefer to think of retirement
planning in terms of financial freedom or independence from an
employer or from worry. Whatever it means to you, living without
a fresh stream of steady income takes advanced planning.
4. Estate Planning. You’ve poured your life’s work into building an
estate, and you need to do some planning to protect and distribute
it. Estate planning is all about who you want to get what and
when, and how you can avoid giving it all to Uncle Sam.
5. Insurance. Insurance covers all areas, including life, health, cars,
other property, potential liabilities, and long-term health care.
This is a big, complicated, and important subject.
6. Special Issues. This catchall category includes things like providing
for education, elderly parents, disadvantaged kids, and gifted kids.
7. Life Planning. This is a subject that’s financial not in its core but
in its reverberations. It includes life changes like a career change
or moving to a new location.
Friday, February 13, 2009
World commodity update for 13/02/2009
Please note the comments is now based on April WTI
As we rolled over into April WTI contract we saw a quiet day yesterday with crude losing just 25 cents. The downward move wasn't convincing enough and the fact that the moving averages are still very close together would point to more sideways movements. The technical picture would look far more bearish if we were still looking at the March contract with the drop out of the sideways range. The lowest price we have seen in WTI this year ($33.20) will provide good support for the current front month.
The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $41.35 (Yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.62 (14 day moving average)
Support: $40.88 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $44.14 (9 day moving average)
Support: $37.99 (low of 24/12/09) Resistance: $43.05 (Yesterday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $43.92 (Yesterday's low) Resistance: $48.22 (high of 10/02/09)
Support: $42.79 (low of 09/01/09) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)
Support: $42.12 (low of 12/01/09) Resistance: $46.60 (high of 05/02/09)
Gold touched 952.00 old resistance areas, despite it represents the upper line of our diagonal and ended it by a bearish candlestick pattern but we think that it' just a normal correction to the clear upside wave. What encourages us to say that is the stability above the critical areas of 925.00-935.00 for more than 33 hours of trading, hence we still expect more incline today as far as (912.00-907.00) cluster support zones remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 1000.00 psychological level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00.
Support: 935.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 943.00, 952.00, 965.00, 973.00, 1000.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 945.00 with targets at 970.00and stop loss with a four hour close below 930.00.
In our last post on crude oil we have given the target of 1660-1670 in coming days,yesterday it kissed 1681.Now if crude oil sustains below 1830-1840 expect price of 1790-1800
Mcx gold update for 13/02/2009
Gold is moving higher and higher.If gold sustains above 14730-14700 expect the target of 14780-14800 and above that it can move up to 14970-14500
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Nifty made low of 2887 yesterday.Now if stays below the breakout support level at 2895-2900,watch selling up to 2825-2830 level in a single trading session.Break of the support level will bring more panic to the market.Now for the up move,nifty should stay above 2895-2900 levels.
World commodity update for 12/02/2009
After waiting for 11 days, what we expected occurred as crude is now reaching our downside targets neglecting the fact that it is being oversold on momentum indicators. Trading is still below the 76.4% correction at 36.50 and we see today that there is a chance for further decline movements that could take crude to 34.85 as far as the 76.4% correction remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.25 and the key resistance at 40.60
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25
Support: 35.60, 35.10, 34.85, 34.20, 33.70
Resistance: 36.50, 36.85, 37.45, 37.80, 38.75
Recommendation: We advise to stay aside.
Gold breached the previous explained critical (930.00-935.00) areas in the Asian session ignoring the bearish candle stick and now we can say that the intraday outlook turned into bullish depending on the stability occurred above 907.00 areas and despite the over bought signals appeared on the Stochastic but it might be engulfed by the bullish signs appearing on the MACD traditional; hence, we expect more incline today as far as 912.00-907.00 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 1000.00 psychological level. The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00.
Support: 935.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 947.00, 960.00, 965.00, 973.00, 1000.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 945.00 with targets at 970.00and stop loss with a four hour close below 930.00.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Yesterday we have given in our blog that it will kiss 2940-2950 just see it touched the resistant line and fell back.For today the support is placed at 2860-2880 which is the previous breakout point.Below the breach of the 1 st support level another support is placed at 2830-2835.
We notice that nifty is moving in parallel channel projecting the target of 2795-2800 in coming trading session.The MACD has also turned down in the hourly chart but haven't crossed yet.if crossed panic fall is expected.
Monday, February 9, 2009
On 06/02/2009 we have mentioned that 2925 will be target in day or two just see it kissed the target yesterday.Now for today,nifty has given breakout of parallel line and closed above the line yesterday.so,the breakout becomes the support for today's trade.
And for the up move we see a three candles closed previously so that will act as resistant for the up move and above that the level of 2975-2980 will act as another resistant
World commodity update on 09/02/2009
Initially crude moved lower touching a $38.59 low but late afternoon reversed course crossing above all moving averages, so it was no surprise to see an 'Outside Day' pattern engulfing the previous day range. Towards the end of the trading day oil retracted again losing 73 cents overall as if stubbornly refusing to make any significant break either way. The technical picture shows a clustering of the moving averages which still point to more sideways movements.
The short term trend is sideways, while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.
WTI:
Support: $38.59 (Friday's low) Resistance: $44.41 (high of 21/01/09)
Support: $37.48 (low of 12/01/09) Resistance: $43.44 (high of 30/01/09)
Support: $36.06 (high of 13/01/09) Resistance: $42.63 (Friday's high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $44.21 (Friday's low) Resistance: $49.12 (high of 16/01/09)
Support: $43.55 (low of 27/01/09) Resistance: $48.40 (high of 27/01/09)
Support: $42.85 (low of 21/01/09) Resistance: $47.48 (Friday's high)
Gold closed slightly higher on Friday in an 'Inside Day' pattern where the range was engulfed by the previous day one. After recent gains, market participants decided to take the profits ahead of weekend with the details of the stimulus package still debated. The move in the US dollar didn't provide much of a hint regarding the yellow metal's direction which could be set to take a breather after failing to breach resistance just under $930/oz.
The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.
Support: $903.40 (Friday's low) Resistance: $927.07 (high of 02/02/09)
Support: $900.88 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $924.20 (high of 05/02/09)
Support: $881.85 (low of 28/01/09) Resistance: $920.10 (Friday's high)
Nifty closed just inside the resistant level(2840-2850) mentioned on Friday.Today nifty should cross the resistant zone placed at 2860-2880.If trades above this level for 1 hour further up move is expected in the nifty.The macd has given positive sign by crossing above the zero line.
Support is placed at 2770-2775 as far as the support holds the uptrend in intact.
Crude oil moving in sideways.A close above 2000-2015 will lead to trend line resistant at 2040-2050.whereas close below 1955-1945 will lead to target of 1660-1670 in coming daysMCX Gold update for 09/02/2009
Gold should move and close above 14300-14350 for fresh up move.support is placed at 13780-13750.Breach of that will lead to 13230-13250
Saturday, February 7, 2009
TRADING RULES
• DON’T TAKE THE MARKET HOME.
• SUCCESSFUL TRADERS ISOLATE THEMSELVES FROM THE OPINIONS OF OTHERS.
• CONTINUALLY STRIVE FOR PATIENCE, PERSISTENT, DETERMINATION, AND RATIONAL ACTION.
• LIMIT YOUR LOSSES------USE STOPS.
• NEVER CANCEL A STOP LOSS ORDER AFTER YOU HAVE PLACED IT.
• AVOID GETTING IN OR OUT OF THE MARKET TOO OFTEN.
• LOSSES MAKE THE TRADER STUDIOUS—NOT THE PROFITS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EVERY LOSS TO IMPROVE YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF MARKET ACTION.
• THE MOST DIFFICULT TASK IN SPECULATION IS NOT PREDICTION BUT SELF CONTROL. SUCCESSFUL TRADING IS DIFFICULT AND FRUSTRATING. YOU ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT IN THE EQUATION FOR SUCCESS.
• ALWAYS DISCIPLINE YOURSELF BY FOLLOWING A PRE-DETERMINED SET OF RULES.
• YOU MUST HAVE PROGRAM, YOU MUST KNOW YOUR PROGRAM, AND YOU MUST FOLLOW YOUR PROGRAM.
• THE KEY TO SUCCESSFUL TRADING IS KNOWING YOURSELF AND YOUR STRESS POINT.
• SPEECH MAY BE SILVER BUT SILENCE IS GOLDEN. TRADERS WITH THE GOLDEN TOUCH DO NOT TALK ABOUT THEIR SUCCESS.
• ACCEPT FAILURE AS A STEP TOWARDS VICTORY.
• DREAM BIG DREAMS AND THINK TALL. VERY FEW PEOPLE SET GOALS TOO HIGH. A MAN BECOMES WHAT HE THINKS ABOUT ALL DAY LONG.
• HAVE U TAKEN LOSS? FORGET IT QUICKLY. HAVE YOU TAKEN A PROFIT? FORGET IT EVEN QUICKLY! DON’T LET EGO AND GREED INHIBIT CLEAR THINKING AND HARD WORK.
• ONE CANNOT DO ANYTHING ABOUT YESTERDAY.
• WHEN ONE DOOR CLOSES, ANOTHER DOOR OPENS. THE GREATER OPPORTUNITY ALWAYS LIES THROUGH THE OPEN DOOR. THE DEEPEST SECRET FOR THE TRADER IS TO SUBORDINATE HIS WILL TO THE WILL OF THE MARKET. THE MARKET IS TRUTH AS IT REFLECTS ALL FORCES THAT BEAR UPON IT. AS LONG AS HE RECOGNIZES THIS HE IS SAFE. WHEN HE IGNORES THIS, HE IS LOST AND DOOMED.
• IT’S MUCH EASIER TO PUT ON A TRADE THAN TO TAKE IT OFF.
• IF A MARKET DOESN’T DO WHAT YOU THINK IT SHOULD DO, GET OUT.
• BEWARE OF LARGE POSITIONS THAT CAN CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS. DON’T BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MARKET. TREAT IT GENTLY BY ALLOWING YOUR EQUITY TO GROW STEADILY RATHER THAN IT BURST.
• NEVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION.
• BEWARE OF TRYING TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS.
• YOU MUST BELIEVE IN YOURSELF AND YOUR JUDGMENT IF YOU EXPECT TO MAKE A LIVING AT THIS GAME.
• IT IS BETTER TO BE MORE INTERESTED IN THE MARKET’S REACTION TO NEW INFORMATION THAN IN THE PIECE OF NEWS ITSELF.
• IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHO YOU ARE? THE MARKETS ARE AN EXPENSIVE PLACES TO FIND OUT.
• WHEN THE SHIP STARTS TO SINK, DON’T PRAY -------JUMP!
• LOSE YOUR OPINION---NOT YOUR MONEY.
• ASSIMILATE INTO YOUR VERY BONES A SET OF TRADING RULES THAT WORKS FOR YOU.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Crude oil
In the same tight range we saw crude moving higher yesterday gaining a mere 66 cents for the day. Although the 9 day moving average moved below the 14 and 40 day moving averages, all these indicators are too close together to be interpreted as a clear bearish signal so the sideways movements are set to continue. Recently the chart showed good technical support just below $40.00 level so only a convincing break below could reinstate the downturn. On the other hand the possibility for a move towards $50.00 is gathering pace and cannot be discarded.
The short term trend is sideways, while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.
Just as mentioned yesterday the support level of 2760-2750 holded and bounced at the last hour of trade.The break of the support would have taken to the level of 2730-2700-2670.On the upper side if the level of 2820 is crossed next hurdles is at 2840.
We see a double bottom formation in nifty hourly chart projecting the target of 2920-2925 if the level of 2840-2850 is crossed and closed in coming trading session.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
As already informed the index was not able to cross the important resistant level.For today the support is placed at 2750-2760 and below that it may take to 2720-2700 levels.The level of 2825-2835 will act as resistant.The index is moving in the parallel line so expect the level of 2700-2720 to be tested in the coming trading session.
Yesterday the index was not able to touch the upper trend line this shows that the weakness in the index.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Nifty closed flat!Settled the day after a little volatile session,It was not able to cross both the side either 2760 and 2820 levels.Nifty has support at 2765-2755 if broken will lead to target of 2685-2695.On the upper side above 2820, 2877-2885 will act as stiff resistant and above that it can move to 2910-2920 levels.
Nifty is trading in a tight range.As far as 2760-2740 holds the up trend is intact and the strong move above 2860-2880 for fresh up movement.Dow Jones has closed positive from the crucial
support level so expect some recovery in our market too!
Crude oil update for 03/02/2009
Crude was able to close below the neckline for the bearish pattern at 40.60 which is now the pivot point on the intraday basis yet today we expect the short term trend to be to the downside unless trading returns above the 42.50 level confirmed with a four hour close. The stochastic indicator shows crude being oversold which could delay further declined for some time but on the other hand, the downside trend remains valid as far as trading is below 42.50 and will be confirmed further with trading below the 40.60 level.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 35.80 and the key resistance at 45.25
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25
Gold is still respecting our expected bearish scenario which we mentioned in our mid-day report yesterday as it’s moving around 901.00 areas represented by the lower line of the diagonal as shown on the chart. A decisive break of which will confirm this expectation based on settling below the golden ratio of Fibonacci 161.8% at 907.00 besides TEMA and GATOR negative signals. TEMA indicator value is now at 897.00 The trading range for today is among the key support now at 856.00 and key resistance now at 945.00 areas. The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60
Monday, February 2, 2009
Trading is within a sideways channel between the 38.2% and the 50% correction for the upside wave the started on 20-01-2009 between a resistance level at 42.50 and a support level at 40.60. A support level which is the 50% correction is supported by the 100 MA on the four hour chart. We are still witnessing that the bearish pattern remains pressuring the contract to the downside where it needs a four hour close below 40.60 to target 38.80 and 35.80 which are the 61.8% and 100% extension for the descending channel that started on 26-01-2009. The downside movements remains as far as trading is below 45.25 which is the key resistance for the downside channel and will be confirmed with a four hour close below 40.60.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 35.80 and the key resistance at 45.25
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25
Gold update for 02/02/2009
Gold is moving below one of the most critical points at 907.00 (cluster resistance turned support) and as we mentioned in our Friday's midday report that the bigger scenario of the harmonic pattern can make an extreme expansion to the 933.00 POTENTIAL REVERSAL ZONE (PRZ) as a target of (D) before correcting to the upside move. The point now is as far as we move upward the point of breaking the uptrend approaches and it's now at the areas of 902-900.00. A clear break of which will accelerate the correction scenario towards 851.00 areas as a first target of the bearish harmonic pattern.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 856.00 and key resistance now at 945.00 areas.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60
Today we expect flat or negative opening in the index.Nifty made a false breakout on friday,the breakout should be valid only if it closes above the resistant with 2 to 3% higher from the breakout.Several attempt is been made at 2860-2880 levels a breakout above this level will lead to minor resistant at 2900-2920 and above that it can make up to 2940-2950 levels.
Support remains at 2800-2820.A close below this levels will support only down trend projecting the target of 2650-2670 levels.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
As informed early by last week post that if market holds the 2634-2650 falling trendline then it will be positive for market in coming days.Exactly nifty bounces back from the support and now it is testing the 2860-2880 levels.Now as already informed that if nifty closees above 2860-2880 we will see the level of 2980-3020 in coming days.
As far as support is considered it remains at 2800-2820.A close below this level will take nifty to 2660-2680 levels.For past three weeks nifty is trading in a range,breakout of the range will bring 200-300 points either side.
Crude oil has taken support at 2000-1980 levels.For fresh up move the crude oil has to move above 2090-2100 then the target will be 2280-2300.While the break of support line at 2000-1980 will take it to 1750 levels.We also see a formation of pennant for 430 points.So trade carefully with strict stoploss!
MCX Gold update for 02/02/2009
Gold has had a nice rally so far bouncing off nicely from the crucial support level.On saturday it has given close above the parallel resistant line.Now the gold has to sustain above the crucial resistant line at 14560-14590 levels for fresh upmove.If closed above this levels expected big move in gold.Whereas failure to break above the resistant will 13750-13720 levels and more