World commodity update for 27/03/2009
Oil has breached the initial resistance at 54.00 reaching 54.60 but Fibonacci expansion level of 100% pressured it and forced it to retrace below 54.00 forming a bearish pattern targeting 53.45 which represents 76.4% of yesterday's incline. But we still expect more upside actions after being supported around 53.45 targeting 55.45 as a first target followed by 57.00 which is the upper line of the suggested inclining channel. This is our expected scenario as far as 52.70 remains unbroken.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 49.35 and the key resistance at 57.60.
The general trend is changing to the upside as far as 52.70 remains intact with targets at 64.50.
Support: 53.45, 52.70, 51.95, 51.45, 51.10
Resistance: 54.00, 54.60, 55.45, 55.90, 56.70
Recommendation According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 53.45 with targets at 54.60 followed by 55.45 and stop loss with a four hour close below 52.70.
Gold is still moving in the same tight range between 945.00 and 930.00 but actually it obtained a strong support around 930.00 (38.2%)Fibonacci of the whole decline started at 1006.00.Therefore we expect an upside action today as far as 907.00 remains unbroken based on the bullish pattern formed on the hourly chart as shown on the secondary image in addition to the overlapping attempt appearing on the stochastic inside the overbought areas while Gator and MACD traditional support our positive overview on 4 h chart.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 984.00.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.
Support: 930.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 935.00, 945.00, 952.00, 956.00, 963.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold at 933.00 with targets at 955.00 and stop loss at 916.00.
World commodity update for 26/03/2009
Oil tried to breach the initial support of 52.55 which represents the neckline areas of the suggested bearish pattern and after it reached 51.80 it moved up aggressively supported by 76.4 % level towards the first target of our yesterday's report 53.80 closing a four h candle above the broken level. Now the price is moving according to our previous predication and the intraday and short term outlook will be to the upside targeting 55.45 as far as 52.65 remains unbroken but 54.00 areas is in need of being breached firstly . Carefully note that momentum indicators didn't show any significant sign.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 49.35 and the key resistance at 57.60.
The general trend is changing to the upside as far as 52.60 remains intact with targets at 64.50.
Support: 52.80, 52.65, 51.90, 51.45, 51.10
Resistance: 54.00, 54.40, 55.45, 55.95, 56.50
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 52.80 with targets at 54.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 51.95.
Gold
After placing a low at 916.00 yesterday the price moved violently towards the initial resistance areas of 940.00 but started to decline slightly showing that it doesn't have enough momentum to resume this upside move. Therefore we expect more downside reactions based on the bearish candle stick pattern obviously formed on the 4h chart in addition to clear overbought signs appearing on stochastic and MA's of RSI indicators opening the way for further decline towards 907.00 (intraday basis initial support areas); particularly if it succeeded to make a four hour candle stick close below 930.00 zones (38.2%) Fibonacci of the short term wave started at 1006.00(Feb.20th -2009) to 882.00 (Mar.18th -2009).
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 984.00.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.
Support: 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 940.00, 952.00, 956.00, 966.00, 977.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold at 933.00 with targets at 912.00 and stop loss at 950.00
Nifty if trades above the level of 2995-3000 then next up target will be at 3040-3045 levels.But if trades and breaks yesterday low then next down target will be at 2855-2860 levels.
The William R indicator has turned down so expect the nifty to reach the level of 2860-2862.If the William R indicator breaks the previous low then the we could expect panic fall in nifty.The trading range for today is among the key support at 48.15 and the key resistance at 56.50.
The general trend is changing to the upside as far as 52.60 remains intact with targets at 64.50.
Support: 52.60, 52.20, 51.60, 50.95, 50.25
Resistance: 53.95, 54.55, 55.20, 55.95, 56.50
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 52.60 with targets at 53.95 followed by 55.20 and stop loss with a four hour close below 51.60.
Gold continued to be hurt by profit taking as risk aversion waned following the Treasury Department's unveiling of a program that may generate $1 trillion in financing. The yellow metal lost 9.1 dollars to settle at $941.8/oz. Plans to buy illiquid assets using up to $100 billion in funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program and capital from private investors pushed the stock markets sharply higher. Gold often moves inversely to equities and is sold when other investments perform well and market worries ease. If the plan succeeds in relieving banks of toxic assets gold is likely to fall but if the plan is considered unsuccessful gold is likely to rally further.
The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.
Support: $935.75 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $974.17 (high of 17/02/09)
Support: $931.50 (low of 26/02/09) Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)
Support: $929.60 (low of 06/03/09) Resistance: $957.50 (yesterday's high)
Nifty has closed above the falling trend line for the first time since 5 Months but to make the further move confirm it should cross the level of 2945-2950 levels.Failure to cross the level at 2945-2950 will take to 2805-2810 levels.Trading below the level of 2805-2810 will take it to 2760-2765 levels. World commodity update for 20/03/2009
Crude has reached above it's projected target at 52.45 with 20 pips whereas it declined 200 pips correcting the aggressive upside action at 38.2% Fibonacci. We note that the range is tightening gradually forming a triangle pattern between 51.10 and 50.80 and a break of which will accelerate the coming action. Probably it will be a corrective move towards 49.85 which represents the support area of the minor inclining channel inside the initial one before resuming the upside action towards the main support at 52.55. Carefully note that the short term prediction is bearish as far as this level remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 47.10 and the key resistance at 54.30.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.40 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 50.80, 50.15, 49.85, 49.10, 48.75
Resistance: 51.40, 51.80, 52.55, 52.90, 53.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to sell the contract below 52.55 with targets at 50.95 and stop loss with a four hour close above 53.25
Gold is slowing down after it reached 962.00 areas which was our yesterday's analysis target and that's definitely expected as these resistance areas represent the decisive point before resuming the correctional wave (B) which is targeting 984.00 firstly followed by retesting the psychological levels of $1000.00 per ounce again. More incline is still in favor completing our suggested sequence as far as 916.00 remains intact in particular after the free move above Ichimoku spans. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 907.00 and key resistance now at 1000.00. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 952.00, 945.00, 935.00, 925.00, 916.00
Resistance: 963.00, 974.00, 988.00, 995.00, 1000.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to attempt to buy gold at 952.00 with targets at 973.00 and stop loss at 935.00.
The William R indicator has some gap to reach the overbought zone in the EOD chart.As long nifty trades above the low of yesterday 2752 the uptrend is intact for the target of 2880-2885 if it crosses above the 2835-2840 levels.
Nifty has resistant at 2795-2800 levels failure to hold break above the resistant at 2795-2800 will lead to 2685-2690 levels.We have given yesterday that william R indicator has given profit booking so we asked our clients to go short with stoploss of 2795-2800 levels.World commodity update for 17/03/2009
After the price moved steadily around the broken support yesterday, it inclined respecting our analysis to cover the previous explained gap at 46.00 followed by 47.60. Now we are facing the initial resistance at 47.85 and we expect that the price will continue to gather bullish momentum to breach it towards the short term target at 52.25 (the upper line of the ascending channel) without ignoring the possibility of some kind of corrections towards 46.25 and 45.45 before resuming the upside rally. This expected rally is in favor as far as 45.45 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.70 and the key resistance at 52.25.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 46.80, 46.25, 45.45, 44.95, 44.40
Resistance: 47.85, 48.25, 49.05, 49.65, 50.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 46.25 with targets at 47.85 and stop loss with a four hour close below 45.45.
Gold is trapped in a tight range between the Tenken and kijun (moving averages)as a result of struggling inside the Ichimoku spans trying to breach it but we still expect an aggressive upside move particularly if the price retests 930.00 again. This bullish prediction is based on indicators which are still suggesting further strength specially CCI and any pullbacks at the current price levels will be initially gathering enough momentum to continue the medium term Elliott cycle. This expected bullish scenario can be changed only if 892.00 zones are broken.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 892.00 and key resistance now at 963.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00, 892.00
Resistance: 925.00, 935.00, 945.00, 956.00, 963.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold at 920.00 with targets at 940.00 and stop loss at 905.00.
It is time to go for short!The William R indicator has given sell signal.Now the support is at the yesterday low of 2701-2705.Trading below the low of yesterday will offer the target of 2675-2680 levels very easily.Gold is still moving positively affected by the successful break out which occurred to the upper line of the short term descending channel and also the successful Tenken-sen overlapping above Kijun-sen that helped the price to enter the cloud of Ichimoku indicator confirming that the impulsive wave has already obtained enough power. Hence more upside rally is highly anticipated on the intraday basis as far as 907.00 remains unbroken with a first target around 935.00 followed by 945.00 areas. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 896.00 and key resistance now at 974.00 level. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 920.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 930.00, 935.00, 945.00, 956.00, 963.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold at 925.00 with targets at 945.00 and stop loss at 910.00.
On Friday we saw a rally now if it trades above the Friday's high of 2725-2730 than the rally can take us to the level of 2795-2800 very quickly.We expect the rally to end at the level of 2795-2800.Above the level of the 2795-2800 nifty can move to the level of 2835-2840.
Nifty faces hurdles at the 2660-2665 levels move over that will take to 2795-2800 levels very easily.The MACD is still in positive trend even though the William %R has given profit booking.World commodity update for 09/03/2009
Oil inclined strongly ahead of the market close reaching the previous mentioned resistance level at 45.65 closing around it while today's open has formed a gap reached our extreme target at 46.75.Now with facing the upper line of the ascending channel, overbought signals appearing on momentum indicators in addition to gap covering possibility the downside move is in favor on intraday basis as far as 46.85 remains unbroken and a close of 4h candlestick steadily below 45.65 towards 45.65 followed by 44.15 and 43.30
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 46.00, 45.65, 44.90, 44.15, 43.30
Resistance: 46.85, 47.05, 47.50, 48.10, 48.55
Recommendation According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the contract with a four hour close below 46.85 with targets at 45.65 and stop loss with a four hour close above 47.50
Gold
Depending on the Elliott cycle which we used to explain gold's move during the last week we can notice on the above chart that the price action respected this count by moving to the upside reaching 38.2% Fibonacci which represents the upper line of the descending channel. We expect that the price will retrace forming the second wave of the medium term (This expected retrace might be limited at 61.8% Fibonacci of the last rise at 915.00-916.00 areas)before resuming the upside rally of the expected (B) leg. RSI, MACD traditional and GATOR supports our intraday bearish scenario.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 974.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 930.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 943.00, 952.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold with a four hour close below 933.00 with targets at 918.00 and stop loss with a four hour close above 945.00.
nifty has support at 2535-2540 level.Breach of the support level at 2535-2540 will lead to 2420-2425.we see that the William % R is already in profit booking zone,so we don't expect much panic fall in the nifty.world commodity update for 06/03/2009
Oil declined sharply yesterday but failed to close below 43.35 (initial support) which we explained yesterday, therefore we still keeping our outlook to the upside with a resistance areas around 46.75 represent the upper line of the ascending channel, all just we need now is a clear 4 h close above 44.35 followed by a breach above 45.65 then the way will be opened directly towards the target areas at 46.75 as far as 43.35
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 43.60, 43.35, 42.85, 42.25, 41.85
Resistance: 44.60, 44.90, 45.65, 46.75, 47.05
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to buy the contract above 44.35 with targets at 45.60 and 46.75 and stop loss with a four hour close below 43.35
GoldThe trading range for today is among the key support now at 896.00 and key resistance now at 974.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 930.00, 925.00, 916.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 945.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00, 984.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 935.00 with targets at 955.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 920.00.
The MACD indicator has turned down as we said as already that there is going to be big move in the nifty.The negative trend has been confirmed has support at 2500-2505,below that it can move to 2470-2475 levels.World commodity update for 05/03/2009
Oil moved upward strongly yesterday particularly after EIA claimed that the inventories reduced then the price breached the initial resistance areas at 42.90 and 44.50 as shown on the above chart .Now there is a possibility appearing on the intraday basis towards 46.40 then we've to watch out the volume around this level because a break of which will take the price towards the resistance areas of the upper line of the ascending channel around 52.00 a barrel,
Momentum indicators sow overbought signs in addition to the negative signal appearing on STOCKSTICK indicator which might confirm retesting the areas of 44.35 before resuming the incline again. As far as 44.35 remains unbroken the upside move will continue as a break of which will lead us to the downside again targeting 39.70
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 44.35, 43.35, 42.60, 42.25, 41.85
Resistance: 45.60, 46.40, 46.60, 47.05, 47.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to buy the contract above 44.35 with targets at 46.40 and stop loss with a four hour close below 43.35
Gold
Nothing changed since yesterday except a new try to breach 50% Fibonacci for the whole upward wave again but the price succeeded to make a clear 4 h close above the mentioned level forming an engulfing bullish candle stick pattern that may be able to support our yesterday's expected scenario for medium and short term trading that the 5 waves sequence from the high (1006.00) has been reached and the expected 3 upward wave is under construction. Indicators are still supporting the positive intraday overview as far as 896.00 remains unbroken.
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 896.00 and key resistance now at 963.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 907.00, 900.00, 896.00, 892.00, 884.00
Resistance: 916.00, 925.00, 935.00, 945.00, 956.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 916.00 with targets at 940.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 900.00.
World commodity update for 03/03/2009
The price declined after breaching the neck line of the previous explained bearish pattern reaching our target at 39.80 and it's now trading around 40.00 a barrel. We expect more downside move for intraday basis targeting 38.25 as a preparation for short term targets around 30.00 but an upward correction may be witnessed and may reach 41.50 as an expected top before resuming the projected downside move as far as 41.50.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 37.90 and the key resistance at 47.75
The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90
Support: 39.80, 39.50, 39.00, 38.50, 38.25
Resistance: 40.60, 41.15, 41.50, 41.85, 42.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the contract below 41.50 with targets at 40.70 and 39.50 and stop loss with a four hour close above 42.25.
Gold is battling 38.2% Fibonacci zones around 925.00-930.00 after yesterday's expected downside move which covered the gap clearly. We now expect that the metal will continue retracing this decline particularly if the price could be able to close a 4 h candle above the mentioned level. This bullish overview is based on the positive signals appearing on Stochastic, Gator and MACD traditional indicators and it will not be changed unless a clear break occurs below 912.00 levels
The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 973.00 level.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00
Support: 922.00, 917.00, 912.00, 907.00, 896.00
Resistance: 935.00, 945.00, 952.00, 963.00, 973.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 930.00 with targets at 952.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 912.00.
Nifty is moving in the narrow range and MACD confirms the directionless trend.Nifty should move above 2805-2810 and close above that for fresh uptrend or it should break below 2745-2750 for fresh downtrend.whatever the direction it may be but the move will be bigger in coming days.
