world commodity update for 28/04/2009

Gold has respected our yesterday's negative prediction influenced by the bearish butterfly harmonic pattern -Check it here- which forced it to enter the previous discussed consolidation area placing a temporary low at 887.00. Now additional downside move is expected on the intraday basis as a normal technical result of the negative daily close –small image- while the hourly (Murrey Math) studies shows that the price is moving steadily below (3/8). Hence we will keep our outlook to the downside as far as the pivotal resistance areas at 920.00 remains unbroken.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 855.00 and key resistance now at 940.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 892.00, 881.00, 874.00, 866.00, 855.00
Resistance: 907.00, 912.00, 916.00, 925.00, 935.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell gold at 900.00 with targets at 880.00 and stop loss at 917.00.

Rupee: Sustaining below the falling trendline at 50.50 we continue to maintain a bullish view on rupee aiming 48.80 levels. The Rupee came under pressure yesterday due to cancellation of old exporter contracts. The movement in Rupee is looking range-bound until there is clarity on the New Government. (USD/INR 50.30) Neutral.