World commodity update for 05/03/2009

Oil moved upward strongly yesterday particularly after EIA claimed that the inventories reduced then the price breached the initial resistance areas at 42.90 and 44.50 as shown on the above chart .Now there is a possibility appearing on the intraday basis towards 46.40 then we've to watch out the volume around this level because a break of which will take the price towards the resistance areas of the upper line of the ascending channel around 52.00 a barrel,

Momentum indicators sow overbought signs in addition to the negative signal appearing on STOCKSTICK indicator which might confirm retesting the areas of 44.35 before resuming the incline again. As far as 44.35 remains unbroken the upside move will continue as a break of which will lead us to the downside again targeting 39.70

The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50

The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90

Support: 44.35, 43.35, 42.60, 42.25, 41.85
Resistance: 45.60, 46.40, 46.60, 47.05, 47.45

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to buy the contract above 44.35 with targets at 46.40 and stop loss with a four hour close below 43.35

Gold

Nothing changed since yesterday except a new try to breach 50% Fibonacci for the whole upward wave again but the price succeeded to make a clear 4 h close above the mentioned level forming an engulfing bullish candle stick pattern that may be able to support our yesterday's expected scenario for medium and short term trading that the 5 waves sequence from the high (1006.00) has been reached and the expected 3 upward wave is under construction. Indicators are still supporting the positive intraday overview as far as 896.00 remains unbroken.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 896.00 and key resistance now at 963.00 level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00

Support: 907.00, 900.00, 896.00, 892.00, 884.00
Resistance: 916.00, 925.00, 935.00, 945.00, 956.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 916.00 with targets at 940.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 900.00.