world commodity update for 06/03/2009

Oil declined sharply yesterday but failed to close below 43.35 (initial support) which we explained yesterday, therefore we still keeping our outlook to the upside with a resistance areas around 46.75 represent the upper line of the ascending channel, all just we need now is a clear 4 h close above 44.35 followed by a breach above 45.65 then the way will be opened directly towards the target areas at 46.75 as far as 43.35

The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50

The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90

Support: 43.60, 43.35, 42.85, 42.25, 41.85
Resistance: 44.60, 44.90, 45.65, 46.75, 47.05

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that it's good to buy the contract above 44.35 with targets at 45.60 and 46.75 and stop loss with a four hour close below 43.35

Gold

It's clear now that our expected count is still in favor by the failure of breaching 900.00-896.00 areas as the price respected 907.00 strong support level, therefore according to Elliott analytical school we suggest that gold is moving in wave B now for medium term trading and 3 waves up are highly anticipated now particularly after breaching the upper line of the descending channel above (Kijun-Sen) line of ICHIMOKU indicator. The intraday basis will be to the upside as far as 907.00 remains unbroken. MACD traditional is still in a positive case.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 896.00 and key resistance now at 974.00 level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00

Support: 930.00, 925.00, 916.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 945.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00, 984.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 935.00 with targets at 955.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 920.00.