World commodity update for 26/03/2009

Oil tried to breach the initial support of 52.55 which represents the neckline areas of the suggested bearish pattern and after it reached 51.80 it moved up aggressively supported by 76.4 % level towards the first target of our yesterday's report 53.80 closing a four h candle above the broken level. Now the price is moving according to our previous predication and the intraday and short term outlook will be to the upside targeting 55.45 as far as 52.65 remains unbroken but 54.00 areas is in need of being breached firstly . Carefully note that momentum indicators didn't show any significant sign.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 49.35 and the key resistance at 57.60.

The general trend is changing to the upside as far as 52.60 remains intact with targets at 64.50.

Support: 52.80, 52.65, 51.90, 51.45, 51.10
Resistance: 54.00, 54.40, 55.45, 55.95, 56.50

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it's good to buy the contract above 52.80 with targets at 54.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 51.95.

Gold

After placing a low at 916.00 yesterday the price moved violently towards the initial resistance areas of 940.00 but started to decline slightly showing that it doesn't have enough momentum to resume this upside move. Therefore we expect more downside reactions based on the bearish candle stick pattern obviously formed on the 4h chart in addition to clear overbought signs appearing on stochastic and MA's of RSI indicators opening the way for further decline towards 907.00 (intraday basis initial support areas); particularly if it succeeded to make a four hour candle stick close below 930.00 zones (38.2%) Fibonacci of the short term wave started at 1006.00(Feb.20th -2009) to 882.00 (Mar.18th -2009).

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 984.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00
Resistance: 940.00, 952.00, 956.00, 966.00, 977.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold at 933.00 with targets at 912.00 and stop loss at 950.00