World commodity update for 09/03/2009

Oil inclined strongly ahead of the market close reaching the previous mentioned resistance level at 45.65 closing around it while today's open has formed a gap reached our extreme target at 46.75.Now with facing the upper line of the ascending channel, overbought signals appearing on momentum indicators in addition to gap covering possibility the downside move is in favor on intraday basis as far as 46.85 remains unbroken and a close of 4h candlestick steadily below 45.65 towards 45.65 followed by 44.15 and 43.30

The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.90 and the key resistance at 48.50

The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90

Support: 46.00, 45.65, 44.90, 44.15, 43.30
Resistance: 46.85, 47.05, 47.50, 48.10, 48.55

Recommendation According to our analysis, we see that it's good to sell the contract with a four hour close below 46.85 with targets at 45.65 and stop loss with a four hour close above 47.50

Gold

Depending on the Elliott cycle which we used to explain gold's move during the last week we can notice on the above chart that the price action respected this count by moving to the upside reaching 38.2% Fibonacci which represents the upper line of the descending channel. We expect that the price will retrace forming the second wave of the medium term (This expected retrace might be limited at 61.8% Fibonacci of the last rise at 915.00-916.00 areas)before resuming the upside rally of the expected (B) leg. RSI, MACD traditional and GATOR supports our intraday bearish scenario.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 974.00 level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 896.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00

Support: 930.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 943.00, 952.00, 956.00, 963.00, 974.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold with a four hour close below 933.00 with targets at 918.00 and stop loss with a four hour close above 945.00.