SHORT TERM COUNT

With a 5 wave pattern will we get an immediate sell off or some distribution pattern is hard to say. Till 11367 holds lower tops and bottoms should be expected from here. With the short term channel at 10700 that should be the first support below 10945. If that breaks then 10300 near the 20dma and 50% retracement at 9730 are the 2 subsequent targets. After that we will have to judge whether the correction is a halt to a larger rally or the beginning of a larger fall. If 11367 is crossed then wave extensions could stretch a distribution pattern like a wedge till 11440 where A=C. However with the falling trendline from the top of the bull market and the upper channel line for the short term converging near 11350 it should not be easy to surpass without a correction first.

MEDIUM TERM COUNT

6 weeks complete the max for bear rallies. A close above the Nov high and 40wema at 10960 is a sign of strength. However due to the time cycle and wave count another week of strength should be looked for to confirm if this is a false breakout or not. The 20 week average at 9602 and falling trendline for the Nov-Jan highs at 9780 are going to offer the support zone to any correction and till these hold its possible for more medium term upside if any. My wave count however is that wave C is a 5 wave rally and therefore X wave should be over at the recent highs. So unless C extends into a multi month advance with corrections in between [with 9700 holding]; the top in place here could mark the resumption of the bear phase to new lows. For these views to confirm 9700 will be the key level to watch.

LONG TERM COUNT

On the monthly charts an engulfing bull across indices occurred. This near the 8020 61.8% line for the 30 year bull market that I have been highlighting gives credence to this support. It also supports the bull market theorists as more evidence develops. So if these supports see an accumulation pattern develop over the next year we could take that call. But right now its only credit to the support and nothing else. Above I have shown the bullish scenario is that wave(2) is over. But till further evidence develops the long term 30 year trendline at 6870 can still be tested.