World commodity update for 01/04/2009

Mixed movements controlled oil price actions yesterday as it moved sharply downward breaching the initial support at 48.80 but the previous mentioned correction level around 47.80 (61.8%) Fibonacci protected it from collapsing and helped it to incline recording yesterday’s high but once more it moved downward below the mentioned support. Hence with the stable moving below 49.35 (support turned into resistance) we see that the negative pressure will continue towards 47.80 but the short term up move predication didn’t change yet but a break of which will lead us towards 46.20 followed by 43.55 as a confirmation of the short term direction towards 40.00 $ a barrel.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.55 and the key resistance at 54.65.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.80 remains intact with targets at 64.50.

Support: 48.25, 47.80, 47.05, 46.55, 46.20
Resistance: 48.80, 49.35, 49.85, 50.45, 50.80

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it’s good to sell the contract with a break out occurs below 47.80 with targets at 46.55 and stop loss with a four hour close above 48.80 but a break of 49.35 with a confirmed hourly close we can buy the contract at 49.35 with targets at 50.80 and stop loss with a four hour close below 48.25.

Gold

The range trading continues as we explained several times before and as we notice on the secondary hourly chart that gold is still preparing for a price explosion and we think it will be to the downside depending on the continuation classical pattern for the downside rally started at 967.00 appearing obviously on the 4h chart while the negative pressure of the cluster resistance at 930.00 (38.2%) Fibonacci is still in favor. Indicators show that it’s totally overbought and at the same time Ichimoku and Gator oscillator indicators support this bearishness as far as 940.00 remains unbroken. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 892.00 and key resistance now at 963.00. The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 900.00, 892.00
Resistance: 925.00, 935.00, 945.00, 945.00, 956.00, 963.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell gold at 920.00 with targets at 898.00 and stop loss at 937.00