World commodity chart update for 21/04/2009

Crude declined sharply yesterday losing 4.01 dollars or 8% to settle at $48.24. The move was significant enough to see crude breaching below the psychological important $50.00 mark and at the same time crossing and holding below the 40 day moving average. Technically we are now out of the $49.05 - $56.09 sideways range in which crude has been trading since mid March and we're looking for the next downside target at $47.71 last seen on March 18th.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $48.18 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $53.21 (high of 17/04/09)

Support: $47.71 (low of 18/03/09) Resistance: $52.41 (yesterday's high)

Support: $47.21 (low of 17/04/09) Resistance: $49.98 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $49.60 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $53.59 (high of 08/04/09)

Support: $48.59 (low of 02/04/09) Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)

Support: $47.47 (low of 31/03/09) Resistance: $51.92 (yesterday's high)

Report written by: Marius Paun

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (June) of the ICE contracts:

Yesterday's Settlements Oil: June - $49.86 July - $51.00

Yesterday's Settlements WTI: June - $48.51 July - $50.77

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Gold inclined yesterday affected by the PRZ-potential reversal zone- of the bullish harmonic pattern appearing obviously on the above chart as we predicated yesterday-check it here- by placing a temporary high at 888.00. Now as it succeeded to hit 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire rally started at 679.00 and topped out at 1006.00 we expect this upward actions to continue particularly if it succeeds to breach the upper line of the descending channel while Tenkan-sen (moving average of Ichimoku indicator) - currently located at 876.00- and SMA 50 is moving below the current candle stick supports the action. Carefully note that high volume is needed to activate this highly anticipated bullishness.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 845.00 and key resistance now at 935.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 820.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 881.00, 876.00, 865.00, 855.00, 845.00
Resistance: 896.00, 907.00, 916.00, 925.00, 930.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy gold at 885.00 with targets at 906.00 and stop loss at 868.00.

Rupee: Rupee in the early trade tested the 50.50 falling trendline resistance giving away all its gains of the last week. Global indices were also negative and dollar recovery against most majors was witnessed. Volatility could be witnessed ahead of the annual policy decision from RBI today. Only 2-3 consecutive closing above 50.50 would turn the rupee outlook bearish. Neutral