World commodity update for 17/04/2009

Oil is still moving sideways trapped between the previous mentioned triangle and as the range is very tight we see that we should watch the price action cautiously when the price touches the support at 48.75 and resistance at 49.65. We still expect a slight declines towards 48.75 whereas a breakout occurs below will extended towards the initial support at 47.20 followed aggressively by 42.00 a barrel but firstly we should see a break of 48.75 as a preparation to reach the mentioned targets as far as 52.10 remains intact because if its broken 55.00 should be reached easily.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.40 and the key resistance at 60.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.80 remains intact with targets at 60.00.

Support: 48.75, 47.80, 47.20, 46.15, 45.45
Resistance: 49.65, 50.10, 50.60, 51.35, 51.80
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the contract below 48.75 with targets at 47.20 and stop loss with a four hour close above 49.6

Gold

We saw a sharp decline in gold yesterday as safe haven interest waned following a relative stable equity market with investors continuing to book profits. The move was accentuated by a news report regarding Indian and Chinese support for the International Monetary Fund to sell off its entire gold reserves worth about $100 billion to raise money for less developed countries. So as a result gold fell $14.80 to settle at $876.10/oz breaking below the 9 and 14 day moving averages and now targeting the recent low of April 6th at $866.90/oz.

The short term trend is bearish while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support: $871.50 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $893.75 (yesterday's high)

Support: $866.90 (low of 06/04/09) Resistance: $890.08 (14 day moving average)

Support: $851.90 (low of 23/01/09) Resistance: $882.89 (9 day moving average)