World commodity update for 13/02/2009

Please note the comments is now based on April WTI

As we rolled over into April WTI contract we saw a quiet day yesterday with crude losing just 25 cents. The downward move wasn't convincing enough and the fact that the moving averages are still very close together would point to more sideways movements. The technical picture would look far more bearish if we were still looking at the March contract with the drop out of the sideways range. The lowest price we have seen in WTI this year ($33.20) will provide good support for the current front month.

The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $41.35 (Yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.62 (14 day moving average)

Support: $40.88 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $44.14 (9 day moving average)

Support: $37.99 (low of 24/12/09) Resistance: $43.05 (Yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $43.92 (Yesterday's low) Resistance: $48.22 (high of 10/02/09)

Support: $42.79 (low of 09/01/09) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)

Support: $42.12 (low of 12/01/09) Resistance: $46.60 (high of 05/02/09)

Gold touched 952.00 old resistance areas, despite it represents the upper line of our diagonal and ended it by a bearish candlestick pattern but we think that it' just a normal correction to the clear upside wave. What encourages us to say that is the stability above the critical areas of 925.00-935.00 for more than 33 hours of trading, hence we still expect more incline today as far as (912.00-907.00) cluster support zones remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 900.00 and key resistance now at 1000.00 psychological level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00.

Support: 935.00, 925.00, 916.00, 912.00, 907.00
Resistance: 943.00, 952.00, 965.00, 973.00, 1000.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 945.00 with targets at 970.00and stop loss with a four hour close below 930.00.