World commodity update for 20/02/2009

Crude prices rose during yesterday's trading after reaching 37.10 where it exited an intraday downside trend and the 23.6% correction at 39.60 was able to limit further gains. Despite us still expecting a decline in the upcoming period, an upside correction may be needed to exit an oversold area on the short and medium term. As long as trading is above 38.70, this could drive crude to 41.15 which is the 38.2% correction.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 34.70 and the key resistance at 43.65

The general trend is to the downside as far as 52.00 remains intact with targets at 30.00 and 25.90

Support: 38.70, 38.00, 37.25, 36.15, 35.20
Resistance: 39.60, 40.00, 41.15, 41.55, 42.40

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its good to buy the contract above 38.70 with targets at 41.15 and stop loss with a four hour close below 37.70

GOLD

Confirming our bullish outlook, it's clear that gold is building a new upward base above the upper line of the diagonal besides forming a classical bullish pattern above Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, the previous mentioned and expected move towards $1000.00 per ounce is still in favor and a break of which will accelerate the move towards 1017.00 followed by the historical high at 1035.00. Note: 1- Areas around 956.00 became the initial support. 2- Stochastic supports the bullish outlook. The trading range for today is among the key support now at 940.00 and key resistance now at 1035.00 level. The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060. 00

Support: 970.00, 963.00, 956.00, 952.00, 945.00
Resistance: 984.00, 995.00, 1000.00, 1017.00, 1025.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 976.00 with targets at 995.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 960.00.