World commodity update for 26/02/2009

After the crossover between the 9 and 14 day moving average we had another bullish signal yesterday with crude breaking and holding above the 40 day moving average. The move was significant as oil gained in excess of 2 dollars in a range of $3.43. If the rally continues we are looking at the upside target around $50.00 level but at the same time a decline towards $33.22 mark should also be taken into consideration.

The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $40.57 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $44.41 (high of 21/01/09)

Support: $39.39 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $43.44 (high of 30/01/09)

Support: $38.77 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $42.82 (yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $43.14 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)

Support: $42.08 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.50 (high of 13/02/09)

Support: $41.85 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $44.72 (40 day moving average)

Gold

Despite the downward movements that occurred yesterday after reaching the resistance areas at $977.00 per ounce which was the target area of our mid-day report yesterday but still the scenario of Elliott wave sequence which we explained in the previous report is still in progress as internal (A) leg is expected to complete the 5 waves internal impulsive wave around or above 935.00-930.00 areas followed by the (B) correctional leg which we think that it will retest the broken trend as shown on the above 4h chart. Note: MACD traditional supports the bullish scenario.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 925.00 and key resistance now at 984.00 level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 900.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00

Support: 940.00, 935.00, 925.00, 917.00, 912.00
Resistance: 956.00, 963.00, 973.00, 977.00, 984.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 950.00 with targets at 970.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 930.00.