World commodity update for 19/02/2009

Initially crude strengthened ahead of US open giving bulls some temporary respite but eventually turned around and finished the day lower losing another 71 cents in a range of $1.70. Probably the most important feature was the fact that oil reached new lows at $37.24 and we are now looking at around the $33 level as the next downside target. The chart shows a set of 8 straight sessions all finishing down since the 9th of Feb indicating a bearish pattern overall.

The short, medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $37.24 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $41.30 (9 day moving average)

Support: $33.22 (low of 15/01/09) Resistance: $40.65 (high of 26/12/08)

Support: $30.00 (psychological level) Resistance: $38.94 (yesterday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $39.35 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $43.92 (9 day moving average)

Support: $38.58 (low of 30/12/08) Resistance: $43.18 (high of 29/12/08)

Support: $36.20 (low of 24/12/08) Resistance: $41.77 (yesterday's high)

GOLD

According to our previous reports for this week gold finally placed a high of the upward wave at 987.00 (we expected it around 988.00), actually all positive effects which we explained before didn't change yet , now we still expect more incline toward $1000.00 per ounce followed by $1017.00. This intraday outlook will be bullish as far as 956 remains unbroken . Notes: 1-The ladder candle stick formation is still in progress as a result of profits taking movements. 2-The support zones which will be responsible for resuming the expected medium term bullish scenario is now at 950.00 instead of 930.00.

The trading range for today is among the key support now at 940.00 and key resistance now at 1035.00 level.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 856.00 remains intact with targets at 1035.00 and 1060.00.

Support: 870.00, 863.00, 856.00, 852.00, 845.00
Resistance: 884.00, 895.00, 1000.00, 1017.00, 1025.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy gold with a four hour close above 980.00 with targets at 1005.00 and stop loss with a four hour close below 963.00.