Crude oil update for 29/01/2009

Break of 41.40 support suggests that recent rebound has completed at 48.59 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. As mentioned before, with 50.47 resistance intact, short term outlook of Crude oil remains bearish. And the current decline should extend towards 30 psychological level next on resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. On resumption, crude oil should head towards lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04 next. On the upside, though, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.

Gold update for 29/01/2009

Gold's retreat from 916.3 is still in progress and touching 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 873.62) as expected. At this point, further consolidation could still be seen. Though, downside of the pull back is expected to be contained by 852.1 support and bring rally resumption. Above 916.3 will target mentioned key near term resistance at 936.3. However, below 852.1 will put focus back to lower channel support at 826 level.

In the bigger picture, break of 892 resistance revives the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.