Nymex crude

From a short term angle, 50/47 resistance remains key in crude oil's outlook. As long as this levels holds, medium term down trend is still in progress and further fall could be seen towards 25 support. However, a break above 50/47 level will be taken as an important alert that a short term bottom is at least formed. Strong rebound should be seen in such case.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.

On the upside, however, a break above 50 will firstly indicate that rise from 35 has resumed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 90 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147 to 24 at 91)

Gold

Gold recovers mildly after hitting 801 and touching of 831 minor resistance turns intraday outlook neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that with daily MACD staying below signal line, rebound from 681 has possibly completed at 892 already. Further fall is still in favor after recovery. Break of 741 support will confirm this case and bring decline to 681 low and below. On the upside, above 869 resistance is needed to turn bias back to the upside for 936 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033 might still be in progress. Below 741 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.