NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil edges higher today but lacks follow through buying so far. Further rally is still mildly in favor as long as 41.40 minor support holds. Note that, while key near term level remains of 50.47 resistance, the case of reversal continues to build up. Firstly, downside momentum continued to decrease with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Secondly, Crude oil is now pressing medium term trend line resistance (extended from 147.27 to 110.45). Break of 50.47 will confirm that a short term low is at least formed and bring strong rebound. On the downside, though, failure below 50.47 and break of 41.40 minor support will argue that down trend remains intact and is possibly resuming.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. On resumption, crude oil should head towards lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04 next. On the upside, though, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.

GOLD

Gold's rally extends further to as high as 908.20 today and at this point, further rise is still expected as long as 852.10 support holds, targeting 936.3 key near term resistance. On the downside, below 852.1 will be a warning that choppy rise from 681 has completed. Further break of 801.5 will confirm this case and turn short term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, break of 892 resistance revives the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.