Nymex crude oil update for 23/01/2009

Crude oil's rebound might have completed at 45.10 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. After all, with 50.47 resistance intact, short term outlook is still bearish. Break of 40.24 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. However, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD, break of 50.47 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 indicates that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04.

Gold

Gold rises further to 878.3 today and break of 869.3 suggests that fall from 892 has completed as a correction to 801.5 already. Further rally is now expected to 892 resistance first then test on key structure resistance at 938.3. On the downside, though, below 843.5 will argue that rise from 801.5 has completed and will turn short term outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, it remains to be confirmed on whether rise from 681 has completed. Though, as long as 801.5, such rise may still continue and target 936.3 resistance. Break of which will add much credence to the case that medium term consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 618 already and should then bring retest of this high. However, below 801.5 will shift favor to the case that such consolidation is still in progress for at least another fall to retest 681 low before completion.