Nymex crude oil

Crude oil's fall is so far contained above 35 low and turns sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 41.18 resistance holds and further fall should be seen to retest 35. Break will confirm that medium term down trend is resuming. On the upside above 41 will turn short term outlook neutral and put focus back to 50 resistance.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 35. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 will indicate that such down trend from 147 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25

On the upside, however, a break above 50 will firstly indicate that rise from 35 has resumed. More importantly, the possible head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 40, h, 35, rs: ?) will revive that case that a medium term bottom is formed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 91 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147 to 25 at 91)

Gold

Gold continues to dip lower today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 831 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, with daily MACD staying below signal line, rebound from 681 has possibly completed at 892 already. Break of 741 support will confirm this case and bring decline to 681 low and below. On the upside, above 869 resistance is needed to revive turn bias back to the upside for 936 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033 might still be in progress. Below 741 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to complete this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 936 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.