Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oils' decline from 50.47 is still in progress and reaches as low as 36.10 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 41.18 minor resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to retest 34.98 low. Break will confirm that medium term down trend is resuming. On the upside above 41.18 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 50.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 50.05 resistance dampens the case that a medium term bottom is formed at 34.98. With medium term trend line resistance intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend neither. Break of 34.98 will indicate that such down trend from 147.27 has resumed for lower end of the current medium term support zone at 25.04. On the upside, however, a break above 50.47 will firstly indicate that rise from 34.98 has resumed. More importantly, the possible head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 40.50, h, 34.98, rs: ?) will revive that case that a medium term bottom is formed. Strong rally should be seen in such case which should take out the mentioned trend line resistance with ease and should target 90.51 medium term support turned resistance (50% retracement of 147.27 to 24.98 at 91.25)

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's break of 829.8 support, with daily MACD staying below signal line, indicates that rebound from 681 has likely completed at 892 already. Short term outlook is turned bearish for 741.2 support first and break will confirm this case. Deeper decline should then be seen retest 681 low again. On the upside, above 869.3 is needed to revive turn bias back to the upside for 936.3 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, recent development dampens the short term bullish case. As rise from 681 was limited below mentioned 936.3 resistance, whole consolidation from 1033.9 might still be in progress. Below 741.2 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to completion this consolidation. On the upside, though, as mentioned before, break of 935.3 resistance will confirm that such consolidation from 1033.9 has completed and should then bring retest of this high.